Macro Overview
U.S. equities extended their winning streak to a seventh consecutive session on April 9, with the S&P 500 (IVV) advancing +0.59% on the day as markets navigated a volatile geopolitical backdrop centered on the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire. The session was defined by a dramatic intraday “red-to-green” reversal: futures opened sharply lower after Iran’s parliament speaker declared the truce “unreasonable” and accused Washington of breaching its conditions, pushing WTI crude back toward $99/barrel; however, markets recovered decisively in the afternoon after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to direct negotiations with Lebanon, which traders interpreted as removing a key obstacle to the ceasefire holding. Developed ex-U.S. equities (EFA) were a notable outlier, declining -0.23% on the day as Japan-specific weakness dragged on the broader index — the yen strengthened sharply amid safe-haven flows tied to ceasefire uncertainty, compressing Japanese equity returns for USD-based investors. Emerging markets (EEM) edged fractionally lower by -0.26%, with China’s technology sector and Malaysia weighing on the composite, even as Brazil surged +2.48% on U.S. dollar weakness and commodity price support. Fixed income experienced a modest bifurcation, with credit-sensitive instruments outperforming — emerging market USD debt and municipal high yield led gains — while the long end of the government curve (SPTL, -0.15%) faced selling pressure, a reflection of persistent inflation uncertainty ahead of the March CPI print. Broad commodity exposure via the Bloomberg Commodity Index (DJP) rose +0.49%, underpinned by precious metals strength — platinum posted gains of +3.48% and silver added +1.36% — partially offset by sharp declines in agricultural grains and natural gas.
U.S. Size & Style
Large-cap growth was the day’s top performer within the size/style complex, as the S&P 500 Growth Index (IVW) advanced +0.81% — the strongest 1-day return across all nine boxes — supported by AI infrastructure tailwinds, including CoreWeave’s expanded $21 billion cloud capacity deal with Meta, which provided a positive impulse to mega-cap growth names even as cybersecurity and pure-play software names sold off on ceasefire-driven decompression of the geopolitical war premium. Mid-cap growth (IJK) was the session’s laggard at just +0.03%, consistent with the sharp intraday selloff in smaller software and cloud-adjacent names that weigh more heavily in mid-cap growth indexes. Technically, the entire size and style spectrum remains constructive: every major benchmark maintains a positive spread to its 200-day SMA, ranging from +0.69% for Large Growth (IVW) to +8.72% for Small Value (IJS), while RSI readings across all nine boxes are comfortably neutral in the 60–66 range. On a year-to-date basis, the growth factor continues to lag value across all capitalizations — large-cap growth remains the only segment in negative YTD territory at -2.48% — while small-cap value leads the complex at +8.57% YTD, underscoring the persistent rotation toward domestically-oriented, economically-sensitive names that has defined the 2026 tape.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Value (IVE) | +0.38% | +0.69% | +0.22% | +2.74% | +22.03% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | +0.59% | +0.51% | -1.76% | -0.02% | +26.58% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | +0.81% | +0.35% | -3.58% | -2.48% | +30.64% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | +0.42% | +3.28% | +0.56% | +5.36% | +24.53% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | +0.20% | +2.82% | +2.49% | +7.32% | +28.16% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | +0.03% | +2.37% | +4.30% | +9.11% | +31.01% |
| Small Value (IJS) | +0.74% | +4.09% | +2.52% | +8.57% | +38.01% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | +0.71% | +4.45% | +3.59% | +8.97% | +34.48% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | +0.74% | +4.88% | +4.60% | +9.27% | +31.04% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Pharmaceuticals — captured via the S&P Pharmaceuticals Index (XPH, +1.89%) — led sector performance on April 9, with the discretionary complex benefiting directly from the ceasefire-driven decline in crude oil prices, which effectively functions as a tax cut for household budgets and benefits consumer-facing businesses. Financials (XLF) managed only a marginal +0.25% advance despite regional banks posting strong gains of +1.69%; the composite was dragged by capital markets and insurance sub-industries that were less responsive to the geopolitical tailwind. Energy (XLE) was the clear laggard with a -1.24% decline, as oil and gas exploration & production names bore the brunt of ceasefire-related selling — the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index (XOP) fell -2.29% — reflecting the sharp decompression in the war-risk premium embedded in crude prices. Technically, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) carries the weakest technical setup in the sector universe: its RSI sits at 54.78, it trades -9.46% below its 52-week high, and only 32.65% of its constituents remain above their 200-day moving averages — a breadth reading that warrants monitoring even as the sector rallied on the day.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Pharmaceuticals (XPH) | +1.89% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | +1.73% | -1.42% | -9.20% | -5.40% | +16.21% |
| Industrials (XLI) | +1.03% | +1.01% | +6.63% | +11.31% | +37.65% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | +0.68% | +0.08% | +6.21% | +6.61% | +12.74% |
| Utilities (XLU) | +0.79% | +1.34% | +11.68% | +11.21% | +27.63% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | +0.81% | -2.39% | +5.89% | +8.03% | +8.13% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | +0.40% | -2.49% | -2.78% | -2.62% | +23.40% |
| Technology (XLK) | +0.27% | +1.78% | -2.67% | -1.20% | +40.17% |
| Materials (XLB) | -0.15% | +3.81% | +7.53% | +14.44% | +30.44% |
| Financials (XLF) | +0.25% | +2.51% | -7.43% | -5.80% | +10.35% |
| Health Care (XLV) | -0.23% | -2.80% | -4.68% | -3.14% | +9.53% |
| Energy (XLE) | -1.24% | +2.45% | +23.63% | +29.05% | +43.70% |
Global Thematic
The day’s thematic performance reflected a stark divergence between beneficiaries of infrastructure and real-asset themes versus risk-off technology and cybersecurity exposure. The Simplify Propel Opportunities ETF (SURI) topped the leader board with a +3.29% gain, while green energy and electrification themes — including the Tema Electrification ETF (VOLT, +2.07%) and Global X Hydrogen (HYDR, +1.90%) — gained on the prospect of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire easing energy infrastructure investment timelines. Cybersecurity and cloud computing were the session’s most consequential underperformers: the WisdomTree Cybersecurity Fund (WCBR) fell -6.99% and the WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (WCLD) declined -5.65%, reflecting a sharp decompression in the geopolitical war-premium that had driven demand for cybersecurity and cloud-based defense solutions over the prior six weeks of conflict. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) rose +1.50%, supported by positive AI infrastructure headlines including CoreWeave’s expanded $21 billion cloud capacity deal with Meta. Homebuilders (XHB) added +1.76%, as commentary tied to post-ceasefire mortgage rate normalization expectations — rates potentially returning to the low 6% range from current 6.4% levels — provided incremental housing sector support.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| TOP 5 LEADERS | |
| Simplify Propel Opportunities ETF (SURI) | +3.29% |
| CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI) | +2.10% |
| Tema Electrification ETF (VOLT) | +2.07% |
| Global X Hydrogen ETF (HYDR) | +1.90% |
| Defiance AI & Power Infrastructure ETF (AIPO) | +1.87% |
| BOTTOM 5 LAGGARDS | |
| WisdomTree Cybersecurity Fund (WCBR) | -6.99% |
| WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (WCLD) | -5.65% |
| Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) | -5.42% |
| Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) | -5.09% |
| iShares Cybersecurity & Tech ETF (IHAK) | -4.51% |
Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets
Developed ex-U.S. markets presented a mixed picture on April 9, with the MSCI EAFE Index (EFA) declining -0.23% as Japanese equities were the standout laggard within the complex — a strengthening yen driven by safe-haven demand eroded USD-denominated returns, with virtually every Japan-focused ETF closing down between 1.33% and 2.03% on the session. Australia (EWA) was the notable outperformer within developed markets, rising +0.85% and supported by commodity price tailwinds; technically, Australia carries an RSI of 64.99 — the highest in the developed market universe — and trades closest to its 52-week high at just -1.29% below that level, indicating relative price strength. Within emerging markets, Brazil (EWZ) was the standout performer at +2.48%, benefiting from the ceasefire’s dollar-weakening dynamic and recovering commodity prices; Brazil’s RSI now sits at 68.43 with the ETF trading at its 52-week high — approaching overbought territory. Indonesia (EIDO) was the weakest emerging market, with an RSI of 48.5, down -17.43% from its 52-week high, and negative readings across both its 50- and 200-day SMA spreads — a technically deteriorated setup tied to the country’s heavy energy import reliance. South Korea (EWY) continues to be a longer-term recovery story following the conflict, posting an exceptional +43.27% YTD advance and a +167.38% one-year return off its energy-shock lows.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEVELOPED EX-U.S. | |||||
| Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) | -0.23% | +2.99% | +3.18% | +6.16% | +34.36% |
| Australia (EWA) | +0.85% | +3.15% | +13.37% | +13.67% | +34.78% |
| Canada (EWC) | -0.35% | -0.30% | +3.31% | +4.65% | +44.98% |
| France (EWQ) | +0.00% | +3.78% | -0.02% | +1.96% | +22.11% |
| Germany (EWG) | -0.29% | +1.29% | -4.12% | -2.07% | +16.81% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | +0.29% | +3.03% | +6.81% | +12.19% | +59.20% |
| Japan (EWJ) | -1.33% | +3.01% | +4.27% | +9.26% | +39.13% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | +0.49% | +4.41% | +2.38% | +8.43% | +41.29% |
| South Korea (EWY) | -0.56% | +4.03% | +27.92% | +43.27% | +167.38% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | -0.15% | -0.75% | -0.05% | +0.98% | +24.12% |
| U.K. (EWU) | -0.38% | +2.92% | +6.36% | +8.32% | +41.15% |
| EMERGING MARKETS | |||||
| Emerging Markets (EEM) | -0.26% | +3.13% | +5.50% | +10.18% | +49.87% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | +2.48% | +9.27% | +22.63% | +27.60% | +73.05% |
| China (MCHI) | -0.16% | -0.80% | -8.05% | -4.76% | +21.68% |
| India (INDA) | -0.41% | -1.82% | -7.72% | -9.21% | -4.20% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | -0.13% | -3.23% | -16.52% | -15.13% | +5.75% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | -1.04% | +1.03% | +3.52% | +4.39% | +33.83% |
| Mexico (EWW) | +0.40% | +7.50% | +11.78% | +14.57% | +58.97% |
| South Africa (EZA) | -0.45% | +0.68% | +2.55% | +5.36% | +74.78% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | +0.07% | +7.98% | +15.91% | +20.27% | +78.46% |
| Thailand (THD) | +0.20% | +6.74% | +19.07% | +19.39% | +44.22% |
Fixed Income
The fixed income market on April 9 reflected a duration-negative, credit-positive environment — a pattern consistent with an economy navigating elevated energy-driven inflation concurrent with ceasefire-related risk-on sentiment. The long end of the government curve was the clear underperformer: the Bloomberg Long-Term Government Bond Index (SPTL) fell -0.15% as traders positioned defensively ahead of the March CPI print scheduled for Friday morning, with headline consensus estimates calling for a sharp jump to 3.1% year-over-year — well above February’s 2.4% — largely attributable to the Iran-related energy shock. Conversely, credit-sensitive and shorter-duration instruments led the session: Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) posted the top gain at +0.42%, reflecting improved EM risk appetite following ceasefire progress and a softer dollar, while Municipal High Yield (HYD) added +0.35% as credit spreads tightened modestly. Bank Loans (BKLN) declined -0.19% and International USD bonds (BNDX) fell -0.31%, consistent with DM currency appreciation pressures and continued volatility in overseas sovereign markets linked to the geopolitical backdrop. The core aggregate (AGG) rose a modest +0.06%, reflecting essentially flat duration-neutral positioning as the market awaits CPI clarity to set the next directional leg.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MULTISECTOR | |||||
| Taxable Multisector (PYLD) | +0.34% | +0.04% | +0.00% | +0.49% | +8.86% |
| Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) | +0.06% | -0.50% | +0.32% | +0.60% | +5.98% |
| Taxable Core (AGG) | +0.06% | -0.61% | +0.31% | +0.59% | +5.69% |
| Taxable Short-Term (BSV) | +0.05% | -0.23% | +0.39% | +0.36% | +4.36% |
| Taxable Long Term (BLV) | -0.04% | -1.64% | -0.14% | +0.53% | +5.20% |
| GOVERNMENT | |||||
| Government Short (SPTS) | +0.03% | -0.07% | +0.43% | +0.39% | +3.82% |
| Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) | +0.01% | +0.30% | +0.85% | +0.94% | +3.97% |
| Government Intermediate (SPTI) | +0.00% | -0.64% | +0.24% | +0.24% | +4.59% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | +0.05% | -0.58% | +0.71% | +0.96% | +4.47% |
| Government Long (SPTL) | -0.15% | -2.17% | -0.23% | +0.41% | +2.98% |
| SPECIALTY | |||||
| Convertible (CWB) | +0.12% | +4.03% | +4.93% | +8.58% | +31.26% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | +0.11% | -0.42% | +0.37% | +0.98% | +7.19% |
| Taxable High Yield (HYG) | +0.11% | +0.62% | +0.57% | +1.03% | +9.40% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | +0.09% | -0.34% | +0.35% | +0.47% | +6.57% |
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | +0.33% | -0.60% | -1.21% | +0.74% | +9.47% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | -0.19% | +0.81% | -0.83% | -0.55% | +6.80% |
| INTERNATIONAL & EMERGING MARKETS | |||||
| Emerging USD (EMB) | +0.42% | +0.01% | +0.44% | +0.53% | +13.26% |
| Emerging Local (EMLC) | +0.23% | +1.31% | +1.06% | +1.21% | +15.72% |
| International Local (IGOV) | +0.04% | -0.34% | +0.36% | +0.09% | +5.94% |
| International USD (BNDX) | -0.31% | -0.55% | -0.18% | +0.27% | +3.10% |
| MUNICIPALS | |||||
| Municipal High Yield (HYD) | +0.35% | +0.78% | +0.64% | +1.00% | +7.63% |
| Municipal Long (MLN) | +0.26% | +0.46% | +1.02% | +1.51% | +9.52% |
| Municipal Intermediate (MUB) | +0.22% | -0.37% | +0.18% | +0.69% | +6.93% |
| Municipal Short (SUB) | +0.03% | -0.12% | +0.27% | +0.52% | +4.08% |
Commodities
The commodity complex delivered a bifurcated session on April 9, with precious metals surging while energy and agricultural grains retreated. Platinum (PPLT) led the entire commodity complex at +3.48%, followed by silver (SLV, +1.36%) and gold (GLD, +0.78%), as precious metals retained safe-haven and inflation-hedge demand even as equity risk appetite improved — a telling sign that the market is not fully convinced the ceasefire resolves the underlying geopolitical and inflationary pressures. Crude oil reversed course from the prior session’s ceasefire-driven plunge: WTI (USO) gained +1.91% and Brent (BNO, +1.04%) recovered modestly as ceasefire doubts resurfaced intraday — WTI swung in a more than $7 range before settling near $98/barrel, still well above pre-conflict levels of approximately $70. Agriculture was uniformly negative: Sugar (CANE) was the session’s worst commodity performer at -2.47%, Wheat (WEAT) fell -1.08%, and Corn (CORN) declined -0.56%, reflecting both a stronger dollar headwind and reduced demand concerns tied to the ceasefire’s positive growth implications. Broad Commodities (DJP) registered a net +0.49% gain for the session, supported by energy and precious metals, even as agriculture and natural gas weighed on the index-level return.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | +0.49% | +3.09% | +21.77% | +25.07% | +42.07% |
| AGRICULTURE | |||||
| Agriculture Broad (DBA) | +0.00% | +1.21% | +4.23% | +5.29% | +6.97% |
| Soybeans (SOYB) | +0.00% | +0.58% | +10.08% | +11.44% | +15.51% |
| Corn (CORN) | -0.56% | -1.70% | +0.00% | +0.90% | -6.09% |
| Wheat (WEAT) | -1.08% | -4.22% | +8.21% | +10.22% | -6.93% |
| Sugar (CANE) | -2.47% | -3.57% | -2.21% | -3.02% | -19.15% |
| ENERGY | |||||
| WTI Crude (USO) | +1.91% | +21.69% | +79.37% | +83.57% | +87.87% |
| Brent Crude (BNO) | +1.04% | +13.58% | +65.48% | +71.33% | +77.66% |
| Energy Broad (DBE) | +0.59% | +15.40% | +63.52% | +64.79% | +70.12% |
| Gasoline (UGA) | +0.38% | +15.90% | +52.81% | +58.38% | +70.94% |
| Nat Gas (UNG) | -1.81% | -11.62% | +4.62% | -11.26% | -44.55% |
| INDUSTRIAL METALS | |||||
| Industrial Metals Broad (DBB) | +0.42% | -1.27% | +0.46% | +4.66% | +38.54% |
| Copper (CPER) | -0.11% | -1.92% | -2.60% | +0.72% | +26.93% |
| PRECIOUS METALS | |||||
| Platinum (PPLT) | +3.48% | -3.30% | -7.36% | +2.76% | +125.19% |
| Silver (SLV) | +1.36% | -12.61% | -5.51% | +6.16% | +143.73% |
| Gold (GLD) | +0.78% | -7.33% | +5.66% | +10.50% | +53.45% |
| Precious Metals Broad (DBP) | +1.08% | -7.68% | +2.98% | +9.48% | +66.29% |
| Palladium (PALL) | -0.55% | -7.55% | -14.79% | -2.57% | +68.63% |
Cryptocurrency
Digital assets posted a broadly positive session on April 9, extending the relief-rally dynamic that has accompanied the broader ceasefire-driven risk-on environment. Bitcoin (IBIT) led the major assets with a +1.21% gain, continuing its seven-day uptrend and consistent with the S&P 500’s own seven-session winning streak, as macro risk appetite improved and geopolitical uncertainty receded — at least temporarily. Solana (SOLZ) advanced +1.19% on the day, though it remains technically challenged: down -32.88% YTD and -36.36% over the trailing twelve months, reflecting the disproportionate impact of the Iran conflict-driven risk aversion cycle on higher-beta digital assets. Ethereum (ETHA) gained only +0.30% — the narrowest single-session advance of the major digital asset categories — as XRP-focused funds, the session’s laggards, posted near-flat performance between 0.00% and 0.27% amid thin catalysts specific to the Ripple ecosystem. From a medium-term perspective, the entire digital asset complex remains in a structurally challenged position: Bitcoin is -17.60% YTD and Ethereum -25.23% YTD, with Multi-Coin (NCIQ) down -19.94% YTD, underscoring that single-session rebounds within the broader ceasefire rally have not reversed the persistent year-to-date drawdowns across the asset class.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP (XRPR) | +0.33% | -1.17% | -34.96% | -26.02% | N/A |
| Ethereum (ETHA) | +0.30% | +9.11% | -27.68% | -25.23% | +35.02% |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | +0.89% | +3.96% | -23.15% | -19.94% | -11.46% |
| Solana (SOLZ) | +1.19% | -2.49% | -38.44% | -32.88% | -36.36% |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | +1.21% | +4.55% | -20.04% | -17.60% | -12.64% |
What to Watch Today
The dominant macro event for Friday, April 10 is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ release of the March Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET — the most consequential inflation print of the year to date, as it will be the first reading to fully capture the energy shock from the Iran conflict and the spike in crude oil prices above $100/barrel that characterized much of March. Headline CPI is expected to surge to approximately +3.1% year-over-year and +0.8% month-over-month, a significant acceleration from February’s +2.4% annual rate; core CPI is forecast at +0.2%-0.3% monthly and +2.7% annually, reflecting energy’s outsized contribution to the headline. The Federal Reserve’s response function will be closely scrutinized: a print at or above consensus would likely reinforce the “higher-for-longer” narrative and push back expectations for any June rate cut, particularly given that the Fed is already navigating a leadership transition as Chair Powell’s term nears its May expiration. Also on the Friday calendar: the University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment reading for April (prior: 55.8), which will provide a real-time read on whether the ceasefire has begun to lift the consumer confidence that was materially depressed during six weeks of Middle East conflict and energy-price shock. Factory orders ex-transportation data are also due, which will help characterize the state of business investment ahead of first-quarter earnings season, which begins in earnest next week.
