Stocks Churn, Awaiting Data as Post-Shutdown “Blind Spot” Persists

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Macro Overview

U.S. equity markets finished mixed on Wednesday as investors processed the news that congressional leaders had reached a deal to end the 43-day government shutdown. This optimism sparked a rotation into cyclical and value stocks, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a new record high. However, the gains were not broad-based, as the S&P 500 (IVV) finished nearly flat with a modest 0.07% gain, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lagged the other indices.

U.S. Size & Style

Yesterday’s market rotation was evident in the performance of U.S. size and style factors. Large Value (IVE) posted a solid 0.41% gain, while its growth counterpart, Large Growth (IVW), fell -0.24%. Small caps were also slightly down, with the Small Cap (IJR) ETF slipping -0.08%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Large Value (IVE) +0.41% 2.01% 4.72% 6.27% 12.49% 7.38%
Mid Value (IJJ) +0.43% 1.02% 3.36% 3.34% 5.05% 0.61%
Mid Growth (IJK) +0.36% 0.86% 3.96% 3.20% 6.97% 1.06%
Mid Cap (IJH) +0.35% 0.97% 3.65% 3.24% 6.18% 0.95%
Small Value (IJS) +0.13% 1.94% 6.24% 7.72% 4.92% -0.50%
Large Cap (IVV) +0.07% 1.82% 4.64% 6.65% 17.72% 15.96%
Small Cap (IJR) -0.08% 1.31% 4.58% 4.87% 4.80% -1.95%
Small Growth (IJT) -0.11% 0.67% 3.09% 2.14% 4.66% -3.48%
Large Growth (IVW) -0.24% 1.70% 4.50% 6.84% 22.16% 22.86%

U.S. Sectors & Industries

The market’s rotational dynamic was most apparent at the sector level. Health Care (XLV) led all GICS sectors, surging 1.42%, followed by Financials (XLF), which gained 0.86% amid cyclical optimism. At the industry level, Metals & Mining (XME) rallied 2.55%. At the bottom, the Energy (XLE) sector was the biggest laggard, dropping -1.40% as crude oil prices fell sharply. This weakness was pronounced in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (XES), which tumbled -3.77%.

Sector (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Health Care (XLV) +1.42% 4.57% 7.54% 17.02% 12.56% 5.65%
Financial (XLF) +0.86% 1.69% 2.89% 2.64% 12.19% 9.47%
Materials (XLB) +0.71% 2.71% 1.50% -0.82% 6.29% -2.77%
Technology (XLK) +0.31% 2.00% 5.58% 9.72% 26.99% 25.24%
Utilities (XLU) +0.23% 0.26% -0.31% 4.91% 21.27% 17.91%
Industrials (XLI) +0.10% 0.69% 3.00% 2.06% 18.37% 10.41%
S&P 500 (SPY) +0.06% 1.85% 4.65% 6.62% 17.62% 15.87%
Consumer Staples (XLP) -0.14% 0.80% -1.00% -5.78% 0.24% -1.53%
Communication Services (XLC) -0.58% 1.28% 0.66% 3.34% 18.32% 18.20%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -0.67% 0.88% 4.02% 5.13% 6.75% 10.81%
Real Estate (XLRE) -0.79% 0.24% 1.70% 1.47% 4.06% -0.48%
Energy (XLE) -1.40% 0.79% 5.90% 7.51% 7.97% -0.55%

Global Thematic

Thematic performance showed wide divergence, driven largely by commodity and digital asset price moves. Precious metal miners surged, with the Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF (SLVR) gaining 4.77%. In sharp contrast, crypto-related themes faltered, with the VanEck Onchain Economy ETF (NODE) falling -4.68%.

Developed Markets ex-U.S.

Developed international markets were broadly positive on Wednesday. The Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) ETF gained 0.59%. Hong Kong (EWH) and Canada (EWC) were among the leaders, rising 1.40% and 1.39%, respectively. The U.K. (EWU) was a notable laggard, slipping -0.32%.

Country (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Hong Kong (EWH) +1.40% 3.86% 12.00% 9.20% 41.86% 38.07%
Canada (EWC) +1.39% 3.29% 3.79% 8.92% 29.27% 24.96%
Germany (EWG) +1.09% 2.96% 0.39% -1.12% 33.15% 34.16%
France (EWQ) +0.96% 3.11% 4.27% 5.25% 28.65% 27.80%
Japan (EWJ) +0.70% 1.26% 7.63% 6.45% 26.71% 26.07%
Switzerland (EWL) +0.68% 4.16% 3.49% 7.90% 28.73% 23.70%
South Korea (EWY) +0.66% 4.49% 18.83% 29.45% 88.49% 72.81%
Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) +0.59% 2.40% 4.68% 6.01% 29.91% 28.13%
Netherlands (EWN) +0.51% 2.23% 4.22% 11.45% 34.45% 33.70%
U.K. (EWU) -0.32% 1.49% 4.27% 6.04% 30.98% 30.91%
Australia (EWA) -0.19% 0.53% 0.53% -1.41% 13.10% 7.60%

Emerging Markets

Emerging markets finished the day flat, with the Emerging (EEM) ETF posting a minimal gain of 0.02%. Performance was highly dispersed by country. South Africa (EZA) was a standout winner, jumping 2.33%, while Mexico (EWW) was the day’s biggest laggard, falling -1.70%.

Country (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
South Africa (EZA) +2.33% 5.98% 7.52% 18.40% 64.36% 54.31%
China (MCHI) +0.08% 1.52% 5.20% 9.96% 39.16% 38.82%
Taiwan (EWT) +0.03% 1.24% 6.15% 7.07% 26.37% 25.02%
Emerging (EEM) +0.02% 1.89% 7.01% 11.38% 34.17% 31.27%
Indonesia (EIDO) -0.05% -0.49% 6.53% -0.91% 2.47% -5.86%
India (INDA) -0.33% 1.51% 3.39% 3.99% 3.65% 2.14%
Brazil (EWZ) -0.81% 2.85% 15.39% 17.01% 50.26% 27.71%
Malaysia (EWM) -0.93% 1.14% 4.74% 6.38% 10.45% 12.84%
Thailand (THD) -1.55% -1.21% 2.28% 2.46% 0.80% -1.37%
Mexico (EWW) -1.70% 0.50% 5.85% 9.35% 48.22% 41.57%

Fixed Income

The fixed income market was mostly quiet as traders waited for this morning’s crucial CPI inflation report. Longer-duration government bonds saw modest bids, with the Government Long (SPTL) ETF gaining 0.18%. Riskier segments were slightly down, with Taxable High Yield (HYG) dipping -0.20%.

Category (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Government Long (SPTL) +0.18% 0.63% -0.06% 4.54% 7.33% 4.91%
International (IGOV) +0.09% 0.43% 0.12% 0.12% 10.12% 7.72%
Emerging (EMLC) +0.08% 0.51% 1.86% 2.79% 16.58% 15.03%
Emerging USD (EMB) +0.04% 0.50% 2.42% 4.33% 13.22% 12.28%
Government Intermediate (SPTI) +0.03% 0.10% 0.29% 1.90% 7.23% 7.40%
Taxable Long Term (BLV) +0.01% 0.55% -0.02% 3.99% 7.89% 5.45%
Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) +0.01% 0.02% 0.31% 1.02% 3.61% 4.25%
International USD (BNDX) 0.00% 0.18% 0.42% 1.53% 3.53% 4.23%
Government Short (SPTS) 0.00% 0.00% 0.19% 1.20% 4.38% 5.31%
Taxable Short-Term (BSV) -0.03% 0.06% 0.31% 1.35% 5.38% 6.08%
Taxable Multisector (PYLD) -0.04% 0.22% 0.90% 2.69% 8.61% 9.31%
Taxable Core (AGG) -0.04% 0.22% 0.32% 2.42% 7.06% 6.86%
Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) -0.04% 0.13% 0.46% 2.45% 7.22% 7.12%
Bank Loans (BKLN) -0.05% 0.14% 1.40% 1.78% 5.54% 6.26%
Municipal Short (SUB) -0.06% 0.08% 0.06% 0.27% 3.01% 3.44%
Corporate (SPIB) -0.09% 0.15% 0.40% 1.77% 7.22% 7.48%
Municipal High Yield (HYD) -0.10% 0.22% 0.69% 4.38% 1.74% 2.05%
Mortgage Backed (MBS) -0.15% 0.12% 0.60% 3.13% 7.94% 7.90%
Municipal Intermediate (MUB) -0.16% 0.14% 0.74% 3.92% 3.47% 3.49%
Preferred Stock (PFF) -0.16% 0.39% 0.55% 0.96% 4.62% 1.70%
Municipal Long (MLN) -0.20% 0.26% 0.95% 5.96% 1.96% 2.52%
Taxable High Yield (HYG) -0.20% 0.25% 1.24% 1.63% 7.45% 7.49%
Inflation Protected (TIP) -0.22% 0.21% -0.02% 1.77% 7.31% 6.57%
Convertible (CWB) -0.55% -0.46% 0.70% 7.61% 19.10% 17.25%

Commodities

It was a sharply divergent day for commodities. Precious metals rallied on a flight to safety, with Gold (GLD) rising 1.61% and Silver (SLV) surging 4.03%. In stark contrast, energy prices tumbled, with WTI Crude Oil (USO) plunging -4.03% and Brent Crude Oil (BNO) not far behind at -3.63%.

Commodity (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Silver (SLV) +4.03% 10.02% 6.36% 40.42% 83.52% 72.14%
Platinum (PPLT) +1.98% 4.84% 1.15% 20.90% 77.57% 69.94%
Precious Metals (DBP) +1.97% 5.70% 5.60% 27.01% 60.01% 60.74%
Gold (GLD) +1.61% 4.80% 4.57% 25.21% 59.41% 60.80%
Palladium (PALL) +1.56% 6.16% 3.67% 30.58% 60.78% 54.63%
Sugar (CANE) +1.47% 2.34% -8.96% -16.85% -18.16% -25.58%
Natural Gas (UNG) +0.62% 5.02% 18.82% 19.30% -12.85% 7.25%
Copper (CPER) +0.51% 2.71% 4.06% 12.26% 25.20% 20.87%
Soybeans (SOYB) +0.39% 1.30% 8.79% 6.72% 9.17% 7.92%
Industrial Metals (DBB) +0.28% 0.93% 4.71% 10.55% 15.65% 15.03%
Corn (CORN) +0.09% 1.47% 4.20% 7.88% -3.96% -1.23%
Wheat (WEAT) 0.00% 2.39% 6.19% 1.66% -11.00% -13.16%
Broad Commodities (DJP) -0.03% 2.76% 6.58% 12.41% 17.14% 20.71%
Agriculture (DBA) -0.53% 0.76% 0.30% -1.53% -0.71% 7.40%
Gasoline (UGA) -2.75% 0.36% 11.12% 9.76% 7.43% 11.61%
Energy (DBE) -2.84% -0.44% 5.40% 3.13% 3.18% 8.45%
Brent Crude Oil (BNO) -3.63% -1.55% 0.63% -2.65% -4.27% 0.28%
WTI Crude Oil (USO) -4.03% -2.06% 0.58% -4.33% -7.62% -1.27%

Cryptocurrency

Digital assets pulled back on Wednesday amid the risk-on rotation in traditional markets. Bitcoin (IBIT) declined by -1.30%, while Ethereum (ETHA) was down -0.77%. Solana (SOLZ) saw a larger drop, falling -1.92%.

Asset (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Solana (SOLZ) -1.92% -6.25% -25.96% -23.23%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ) -1.38% -2.39% -14.04% -18.39%
Bitcoin (IBIT) -1.30% -2.19% -13.01% -15.25% 8.56% 12.81%
Ethereum (ETHA) -0.77% -1.53% -14.60% -24.70% 1.98% 3.49%

What to Watch Today

Following the end of the 43-day government shutdown, the market is now in a data vacuum, as key economic reports, including the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and jobs data, were not released as scheduled. The major focus for investors today will be any announcements from the Bureau of Labor Statistics or other agencies regarding a new schedule for these crucial macro releases. This data blackout creates significant uncertainty, leaving the market and the Federal Reserve “flying blind” as they attempt to gauge the health of the economy and the future path of interest rates.

For a deeper dive into the data, access today’s full Daily ETF Data Pack.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.