Macro Overview
U.S. equity markets faced broad-based selling pressure on Monday as investors grappled with fresh trade policy uncertainty and the lingering effects of a k-shaped recovery. The S&P 500 (IVV) declined 1.01% in a session marked by sector rotation, with defensive pockets like Utilities and Consumer Staples finding relative safety. While the Supreme Court’s ruling against broad tariffs provided a temporary psychological lift, the pivot toward smaller-scale executive trade actions kept volatility high, particularly in international markets where the Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) fell 0.41%. Fixed income markets offered a reprieve as yields softened, with the Total Bond Market (AGG) rising 0.20%, while commodities saw a sharp split as Precious Metals (DBP) surged 3.01% amid a flight to quality.
U.S. Size & Style
Growth-oriented segments led the decline on Monday as the “AI fatigue” narrative continued to weigh on mega-cap valuations. Large Cap Growth (IVW) fell 1.22%, with its RSI dropping to a relatively weak 42.64, signaling a loss of technical momentum. In contrast, Small Cap Value (IJS) was the day’s laggard with a 2.57% drop, though it remains well-supported above its 200-day moving average with a healthy 11.54% cushion. Breadth remains a concern for the broader market, as only 46.7% of Large Growth constituents are currently trading above their 50-day moving average.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Value (IVE) | -0.80% | 1.42% | 6.94% | 3.47% | 13.65% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | -1.01% | -0.98% | 3.87% | 0.08% | 15.17% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | -1.22% | -3.14% | 1.08% | -2.94% | 16.19% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | -1.53% | 2.19% | 12.57% | 8.32% | 18.04% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | -1.72% | 1.77% | 11.70% | 7.38% | 15.93% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | -1.96% | 1.31% | 10.59% | 6.32% | 13.56% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | -1.53% | 0.67% | 10.27% | 6.84% | 14.15% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | -2.01% | 0.70% | 12.12% | 7.33% | 15.93% |
| Small Value (IJS) | -2.57% | 0.75% | 13.84% | 7.73% | 17.63% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
Defensive sectors dominated the leaderboard on Monday, with Consumer Staples (XLP) and Health Care (XLV) posting solid gains. Energy (XLE) remained overbought with an RSI of 70.49, reflecting its massive 23.35% YTD run. On the laggard side, Financials (XLF) plummeted 3.35%, hitting a technical air pocket that now leaves it 10.05% below its 52-week high. Utilities (XLU) currently boasts the strongest breadth, with 96.77% of its constituents trading above their 50-day moving average.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | 1.23% | 7.31% | 15.13% | 14.53% | 11.22% |
| Health Care (XLV) | 1.10% | 0.67% | 2.98% | 2.42% | 10.17% |
| Utilities (XLU) | 0.76% | 9.68% | 6.70% | 9.35% | 19.61% |
| Energy (XLE) | 0.49% | 12.12% | 24.39% | 23.35% | 25.36% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | 0.11% | 5.72% | 7.78% | 8.08% | 6.79% |
| Materials (XLB) | 0.00% | 5.98% | 23.29% | 16.78% | 22.64% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | -1.23% | -1.37% | 3.42% | -2.00% | 13.33% |
| Industrials (XLI) | -1.35% | 6.46% | 17.24% | 12.71% | 31.42% |
| Technology (XLK) | -1.68% | -4.53% | 1.56% | -3.79% | 18.68% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | -2.09% | -6.61% | 2.19% | -3.70% | 6.20% |
| Financial (XLF) | -3.35% | -4.41% | -1.48% | -7.38% | 1.34% |
Global Thematic
Gold and Lithium miners surged on Monday, with the Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) leading all themes with a 4.20% gain. The flight to hard assets was evident as the Sprott Silver Miners (SLVR) also jumped 4.14%. Conversely, high-beta tech themes were decimated; Cloud Computing (WCLD) crashed 7.26%, signaling a sharp technical breakdown in software sentiment. Cybersecurity and innovation-focused funds like WCBR and GPZ also suffered significant daily losses exceeding 5.5%.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| Top 5 Leaders | |
| Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) | 4.20% |
| Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF (SLVR) | 4.14% |
| Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP) | 3.84% |
| VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) | 3.79% |
| U.S. Global GO GOLD Miners ETF (GOAU) | 3.79% |
| Bottom 5 Laggards | |
| WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (WCLD) | -7.26% |
| WisdomTree Cybersecurity Fund (WCBR) | -5.72% |
| VanEck Alternative Asset Manager ETF (GPZ) | -5.58% |
| First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY) | -5.15% |
| Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) | -4.97% |
Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets
International markets were dominated by a massive divergence in South Korean equities; despite a 1.82% daily decline in the MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY), the segment remains an extreme technical outlier with a 147.39% 1-year return and an RSI of 71.71. Developed markets like the U.K. (EWU) and Switzerland (EWL) traded defensively, remaining within 0.35% of their 52-week highs. Emerging Markets (EEM) overall fell 1.11%, pressured by a 2.08% slide in Mexico (EWW) as trade concerns localized.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developed ex-U.S. Countries | |||||
| Hong Kong (EWH) | 0.08% | 5.08% | 13.14% | 11.91% | 45.87% |
| Japan (EWJ) | -0.09% | 8.08% | 16.83% | 13.19% | 38.39% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | -0.11% | 5.65% | 13.44% | 7.25% | 26.95% |
| U.K. (EWU) | -0.31% | 5.09% | 16.07% | 8.89% | 37.01% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | -0.36% | 0.99% | 16.88% | 10.38% | 37.50% |
| Canada (EWC) | -0.37% | 2.12% | 13.94% | 5.60% | 39.22% |
| France (EWQ) | -0.40% | 4.35% | 9.25% | 5.56% | 22.70% |
| Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) | -0.41% | 4.50% | 14.81% | 8.79% | 32.70% |
| Australia (EWA) | -0.84% | 7.56% | 18.26% | 12.45% | 23.88% |
| Germany (EWG) | -0.95% | 0.97% | 11.42% | 3.29% | 24.27% |
| Emerging Markets Countries | |||||
| South Africa (EZA) | 0.83% | 2.03% | 26.69% | 13.21% | 78.49% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | 0.28% | -4.73% | -0.46% | -3.16% | 6.69% |
| Thailand (THD) | 0.04% | 13.42% | 26.88% | 21.38% | 34.40% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | -0.40% | 4.27% | 15.96% | 9.69% | 28.49% |
| China (MCHI) | -0.41% | -3.16% | 0.97% | 1.15% | 11.36% |
| Emerging (EEM) | -1.11% | 4.37% | 17.77% | 12.69% | 40.62% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | -1.52% | 5.96% | 25.39% | 22.03% | 60.56% |
| India (INDA) | -1.52% | 2.67% | -2.95% | -2.66% | 6.71% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | -1.61% | 4.98% | 23.87% | 15.19% | 44.57% |
| Mexico (EWW) | -2.08% | 4.55% | 22.78% | 14.73% | 58.79% |
| South Korea (EWY) | -1.82% | 18.08% | 59.68% | 43.28% | 147.39% |
Fixed Income
Bonds experienced a duration-led rally on Monday as the 10-year Treasury yield retreated from key psychological levels. Government Long (SPTL) led the sovereign space with a 0.37% gain, while core aggregate bonds (AGG) rose 0.20%, maintaining a positive 1.55% YTD return. Credit-sensitive segments were the primary laggards, with Bank Loans (BKLN) dropping 0.72% and Preferred Stocks (PFF) falling 0.63%, reflecting a cautious risk-off tone across the capital structure.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multisector | |||||
| Taxable Core (AGG) | 0.20% | 1.32% | 1.65% | 1.55% | 7.26% |
| Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) | 0.19% | 1.26% | 1.70% | 1.54% | 7.48% |
| Taxable Long Term (BLV) | 0.18% | 1.92% | 1.87% | 2.73% | 6.71% |
| Taxable Short-Term (BSV) | 0.15% | 0.83% | 1.18% | 0.81% | 5.99% |
| Government | |||||
| Government Long (SPTL) | 0.37% | 2.43% | 1.64% | 3.01% | 5.53% |
| Government Intermediate (SPTI) | 0.31% | 1.51% | 1.20% | 1.26% | 7.37% |
| Government Short (SPTS) | 0.10% | 0.59% | 0.99% | 0.59% | 5.04% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | 0.09% | 0.96% | 0.85% | 1.26% | 5.76% |
| Government Ultrashort (BIL) | 0.00% | 0.27% | 0.90% | 0.50% | 4.03% |
| Specialty | |||||
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | 0.22% | 1.41% | 2.20% | 1.76% | 8.48% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | 0.18% | 1.07% | 1.72% | 1.22% | 7.85% |
| Taxable High Yield (HYG) | -0.16% | 0.16% | 2.07% | 0.79% | 7.59% |
| Convertible (CWB) | -0.54% | 0.35% | 9.00% | 5.62% | 19.97% |
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | -0.63% | -0.73% | 4.78% | 2.32% | 6.06% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | -0.72% | -1.87% | -0.54% | -1.92% | 4.36% |
| International & EM | |||||
| International USD (BNDX) | 0.18% | 1.51% | 1.44% | 1.79% | 4.17% |
| International (IGOV) | 0.13% | 1.61% | 3.99% | 2.78% | 10.90% |
| Emerging USD (EMB) | 0.06% | 1.46% | 2.86% | 1.92% | 13.22% |
| Emerging (EMLC) | 0.04% | 1.15% | 5.61% | 3.03% | 18.00% |
| Municipals | |||||
| Municipal Long (MLN) | 0.15% | 1.39% | 1.85% | 1.33% | 3.11% |
| Municipal High Yield (HYD) | 0.14% | 0.76% | 1.75% | 0.84% | 2.88% |
| Municipal Short (SUB) | 0.05% | 0.49% | 1.41% | 0.90% | 3.84% |
| Municipal Intermediate (MUB) | -0.03% | 1.10% | 2.07% | 1.57% | 4.62% |
Commodities
Hard assets were the day’s clear standout, with Precious Metals (DBP) surging 3.01% as Silver (SLV) jumped 5.16% in a high-velocity momentum move. Gold (GLD) followed with a 2.70% rise, extending its massive 77.76% 1-year gain. Energy was more tempered as the broad complex (DBE) rose only 0.25%, pinned down by a 2.25% crash in Natural Gas (UNG). Industrial Metals (DBB) slipped 0.55%, reflecting cooling global manufacturing demand expectations.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | 0.33% | 0.96% | 14.84% | 11.75% | 19.13% |
| Agriculture | |||||
| Broad-based (DBA) | -0.23% | 0.89% | 3.95% | 1.76% | -2.35% |
| Corn (CORN) | 0.00% | 1.15% | 0.11% | -0.62% | -12.93% |
| Soybeans (SOYB) | -0.09% | 5.39% | 0.38% | 7.37% | 5.58% |
| Wheat (WEAT) | -1.17% | 5.59% | 4.58% | 9.71% | -16.21% |
| Sugar (CANE) | 1.21% | -2.15% | -1.64% | -4.25% | -26.31% |
| Energy | |||||
| Broad-based (DBE) | 0.25% | 7.44% | 11.56% | 15.72% | 7.68% |
| Gasoline (UGA) | 0.43% | 8.01% | 9.93% | 16.02% | 12.95% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | 0.06% | 9.40% | 16.74% | 16.98% | 7.37% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BNO) | 0.03% | 10.43% | 18.83% | 19.67% | 11.37% |
| Natural Gas (UNG) | -2.25% | -15.96% | -19.86% | -4.24% | -46.85% |
| Industrial Metals | |||||
| Broad-based (DBB) | -0.55% | -2.43% | 14.18% | 3.27% | 24.46% |
| Copper (CPER) | -1.35% | -2.30% | 14.84% | 2.06% | 24.76% |
| Precious Metals | |||||
| Broad-based (DBP) | 3.01% | -1.06% | 36.78% | 21.17% | 89.12% |
| Gold (GLD) | 2.70% | 5.08% | 28.59% | 21.44% | 77.76% |
| Silver (SLV) | 5.16% | -13.28% | 77.86% | 25.07% | 172.29% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | 0.44% | -21.76% | 43.09% | 5.86% | 122.53% |
| Palladium (PALL) | -0.04% | -13.64% | 27.94% | 9.74% | 79.89% |
Cryptocurrency
The digital asset ecosystem saw uniform selling pressure on Monday as risk appetite evaporated across global markets. Solana (SOLZ) led the declines with a sharp 7.67% drop, while Ethereum (ETHA) followed with a 5.64% slide. Bitcoin (IBIT) fell 4.87%, now sitting down 26.38% YTD as the asset class enters a deeper consolidation phase amid broader macro instability and tariff-related concerns.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solana (SOLZ) | -7.67% | -38.47% | -39.11% | -37.32% | – |
| Ethereum (ETHA) | -5.64% | -36.71% | -32.13% | -37.36% | -29.29% |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | -4.95% | -29.68% | -26.04% | -28.13% | -33.87% |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | -4.87% | -27.91% | -23.81% | -26.38% | -32.21% |
| XRP (XRP) | -4.35% | -29.85% | -30.27% | -26.02% | – |
What to Watch Today
The week’s risk narrative will likely be dominated by the fallout from the U.S. Supreme Court’s trade ruling and the potential for the White House to introduce new executive-level global tariffs using Section 122 or 301 authorities. Economic data remains a secondary focus as the market awaits the conclusion of the Q4 earnings season, headlined by Nvidia’s critical report later this week. Investors should also monitor Federal Reserve officials for signals on whether the recent deceleration in GDP to 1.4% will shift the central bank’s stance toward a more aggressive neutral rate pivot amid sticky inflation prints.
