Macro Overview
U.S. equity markets closed out 2025 on a soft note, as major indexes retreated for a fourth consecutive session on the final day of the year. The S&P 500 (IVV) slipped -0.72% during Wednesday’s session, despite a stronger-than-expected weekly jobless claims report of 199,000. While the day’s price action was subdued, the broader narrative for 2025 remained one of significant strength, with the benchmark index finishing the year up +17.85%. Market participants spent the final hours repositioning for 2026, navigating a landscape defined by an AI-driven rally and cooling inflation, even as the 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.17%.
U.S. Size & Style
Performance across size and style cohorts was broadly negative on the final day of the year, with Small Growth bearing the brunt of the sell-off. The Small Growth (IJT) fell -1.47%, lagging its larger peers. Meanwhile, Large Value (IVE) was the relative outperformer, dropping -0.70%. For the full year, the growth trade remained dominant, as Large Growth (IVW) secured a commanding +21.95% return, significantly outpacing value-oriented strategies.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Value (IVE) | -0.70% | -0.99% | 0.31% | 3.18% | 13.02% | 13.02% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | -0.72% | -1.20% | 0.07% | 2.70% | 17.85% | 17.85% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | -0.72% | -1.38% | -0.18% | 2.21% | 21.95% | 21.95% |
| Small Value (IJS) | -0.91% | -1.74% | 0.79% | 3.32% | 6.54% | 6.54% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | -0.94% | -1.60% | 0.31% | 2.07% | 7.27% | 7.27% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | -1.05% | -1.98% | -0.02% | 1.64% | 7.42% | 7.42% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | -1.11% | -2.25% | -0.29% | 1.25% | 7.29% | 7.29% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | -1.24% | -2.40% | -0.11% | 1.61% | 5.89% | 5.89% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | -1.47% | -2.94% | -1.05% | 0.05% | 5.27% | 5.27% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
While all sectors ended the day in negative territory, Communication Services (XLC) showed the most resilience, declining just -0.48%. Conversely, Technology (XLK) led the laggards with a -0.99% drop, as profit-taking hit the year’s high-flyers. Industry-level action was headlined by Biotech (XBI), which bucked the trend to gain +0.21%, while interest-rate sensitive industries like Homebuilders (XHB) struggled, falling -1.05%.
| Sector (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services (XLC) | -0.48% | -0.21% | 2.35% | -0.23% | 23.07% | 23.07% |
| Energy (XLE) | -0.56% | +1.15% | -0.30% | 0.93% | 7.88% | 7.88% |
| Health Care (XLV) | -0.57% | -0.80% | -1.39% | 11.70% | 14.50% | 14.50% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | -0.60% | -0.70% | -1.34% | -0.08% | 1.52% | 1.52% |
| Utilities (XLU) | -0.63% | -0.21% | -5.09% | -1.37% | 16.00% | 16.00% |
| Financial (XLF) | -0.74% | -1.53% | 3.05% | 2.02% | 14.89% | 14.89% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | -0.79% | -2.16% | 1.20% | -0.15% | 7.36% | 7.36% |
| Industrials (XLI) | -0.83% | -1.33% | 1.27% | 0.92% | 19.33% | 19.33% |
| Materials (XLB) | -0.83% | -1.65% | 1.97% | 1.72% | 9.92% | 9.92% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | -0.91% | -0.42% | -2.12% | -3.19% | 2.60% | 2.60% |
| Technology (XLK) | -0.99% | -1.75% | 0.75% | 2.31% | 24.60% | 24.60% |
Global Thematic
Thematic divergence was on full display as Uranium miners saw strong buying interest while precious metal miners were aggressively sold. The Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (URNJ) surged +1.51%, leading all themes. On the downside, silver-related themes collapsed, with the Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF (SLVR) plunging -3.72% as the CME announced higher margin requirements for silver.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (URNJ) | +1.51% |
| ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF (SBIO) | +0.85% |
| Simplify Propel Opportunities ETF (SURI) | +0.53% |
| AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) | +0.43% |
| Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) | +0.35% |
| iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING) | -1.59% |
| Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ) | -1.64% |
| Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) | -1.71% |
| Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) | -2.33% |
| Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF (SLVR) | -3.72% |
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
International developed markets saw a broadly negative session, with the Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) slipping -0.43%. Pressure was most acute in Asian developed markets, where South Korea (EWY) fell -1.42% and Hong Kong (EWH) dropped -1.30%. Despite the daily dip, the EFA finished 2025 with a stellar +31.55% return, marking its strongest year in over a decade.
| Country (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) | -0.43% | -0.56% | 2.72% | 4.72% | 31.55% | 31.55% |
| Japan (EWJ) | -0.30% | -0.28% | 0.95% | 4.47% | 25.89% | 25.89% |
| France (EWQ) | -0.33% | -0.42% | 1.45% | 2.93% | 28.88% | 28.88% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | -0.34% | -0.23% | 1.80% | 2.08% | 34.87% | 34.87% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | -0.35% | -0.96% | 3.70% | 8.54% | 32.94% | 32.94% |
| U.K. (EWU) | -0.54% | -0.59% | 3.90% | 6.82% | 34.96% | 34.96% |
| Germany (EWG) | -0.58% | -0.35% | 3.86% | 2.14% | 35.77% | 35.77% |
| Canada (EWC) | -0.68% | -1.59% | 3.25% | 7.64% | 35.92% | 35.92% |
| Australia (EWA) | -0.83% | -1.84% | 3.06% | -1.33% | 13.35% | 13.35% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | -1.30% | -3.01% | -1.35% | 1.81% | 34.50% | 34.50% |
| South Korea (EWY) | -1.42% | +1.44% | 9.42% | 24.14% | 95.39% | 95.39% |
Emerging Markets
Emerging markets remained relatively stable compared to their developed counterparts, with the Emerging (EEM) down -0.31%. India was a significant bright spot, as the India (INDA) gained +0.76% amid strong local growth sentiment. However, China continued to drag on broad EM averages, with China (MCHI) falling -0.84% on the day.
| Country (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India (INDA) | +0.76% | +0.39% | -1.21% | 3.82% | 2.68% | 2.68% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | +0.16% | +1.35% | 1.13% | 7.59% | 4.92% | 4.92% |
| Mexico (EWW) | -0.23% | -2.56% | 3.30% | 3.62% | 53.69% | 53.69% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | -0.28% | +0.81% | 3.02% | 4.46% | 28.39% | 28.39% |
| Emerging (EEM) | -0.31% | -0.16% | 2.17% | 3.93% | 33.98% | 33.98% |
| Thailand (THD) | -0.40% | -1.94% | 2.44% | 2.70% | 2.39% | 2.39% |
| South Africa (EZA) | -0.62% | -2.15% | 8.75% | 13.23% | 75.23% | 75.23% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | -0.69% | +0.46% | -2.08% | 6.17% | 48.87% | 48.87% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | -0.76% | -1.01% | 5.16% | 7.23% | 15.71% | 15.71% |
| China (MCHI) | -0.84% | -1.96% | -2.24% | -7.65% | 31.03% | 31.03% |
Fixed Income
Fixed income markets were slightly softer on the year’s final day, as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed four basis points. The Taxable Core (AGG) slipped -0.24%, while Government Long (SPTL) felt the most pressure with a -0.64% decline. Short-duration assets like Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) remained steady, posting a marginal +0.01% gain as cash became a temporary refuge for some.
| Category (Ticker) | 1 Day | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taxable Core (AGG) | -0.24% | -0.16% | -0.28% | 0.94% | 7.19% | 7.19% |
| Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) | -0.24% | -0.19% | -0.21% | 1.04% | 7.38% | 7.38% |
| Taxable Multisector (PYLD) | -0.19% | -0.07% | 0.40% | 1.83% | 9.57% | 9.57% |
| Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) | +0.01% | +0.02% | 0.34% | 0.98% | 4.15% | 4.15% |
| Taxable Short-Term (BSV) | -0.06% | +0.03% | 0.24% | 1.19% | 5.99% | 5.99% |
| Taxable Long Term (BLV) | -0.54% | -0.50% | -1.80% | -0.36% | 6.43% | 6.43% |
| Government Short (SPTS) | 0.00% | +0.10% | 0.33% | 1.16% | 5.04% | 5.04% |
| Government Intermediate (SPTI) | -0.17% | -0.14% | -0.27% | 1.05% | 7.46% | 7.46% |
| Government Long (SPTL) | -0.64% | -0.45% | -2.09% | -0.44% | 5.28% | 5.28% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | -0.20% | -0.13% | -0.62% | -0.08% | 6.77% | 6.77% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | -0.15% | -0.15% | 0.11% | 1.23% | 7.91% | 7.91% |
| Taxable High Yield (HYG) | -0.10% | +0.04% | 0.49% | 1.23% | 8.60% | 8.60% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | 0.00% | +0.05% | 0.88% | 1.99% | 6.88% | 6.88% |
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | -0.32% | -0.32% | 0.82% | -0.24% | 4.87% | 4.87% |
| Convertible (CWB) | -0.49% | -1.35% | -1.18% | -0.89% | 16.61% | 16.61% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | -0.24% | -0.15% | 0.14% | 1.51% | 8.38% | 8.38% |
| International USD (BNDX) | -0.12% | -0.21% | -0.52% | 0.29% | 2.86% | 2.86% |
| International (IGOV) | -0.26% | -0.51% | 0.36% | -0.82% | 9.97% | 9.97% |
| Emerging USD (EMB) | -0.20% | -0.27% | 0.32% | 2.81% | 13.85% | 13.85% |
| Emerging (EMLC) | 0.00% | -0.12% | 1.40% | 3.30% | 18.81% | 18.81% |
| Municipal Short (SUB) | +0.01% | +0.13% | 0.43% | 0.78% | 3.64% | 3.64% |
| Municipal Intermediate (MUB) | +0.01% | +0.21% | 0.24% | 1.66% | 3.78% | 3.78% |
| Municipal Long (MLN) | -0.17% | -0.24% | 0.16% | 1.55% | 1.82% | 1.82% |
| Municipal High Yield (HYD) | +0.03% | +0.10% | 0.39% | 1.85% | 2.83% | 2.83% |
Commodities
Commodities faced significant volatility as silver and natural gas led a sharp pullback. The Silver (SLV) plunged -6.61% following margin requirement changes, while Natural Gas (UNG) fell -6.55%. Despite the daily carnage in metals, Gold (GLD) ended its historic year with an impressive +63.68% gain, while Silver (SLV) finished 2025 up a staggering +144.66%.
| Commodity (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sugar (CANE) | +0.35% | -0.97% | -0.05% | -7.97% | -14.65% | -14.65% |
| Corn (CORN) | 0.00% | -2.04% | -1.35% | 1.60% | -5.54% | -5.54% |
| Agriculture (DBA) | -0.20% | -0.55% | 0.06% | -1.21% | -0.58% | -0.58% |
| Industrial Metals (DBB) | -0.35% | +0.31% | 7.20% | 14.71% | 25.00% | 25.00% |
| Wheat (WEAT) | -0.55% | -2.30% | -4.17% | -2.82% | -17.14% | -17.14% |
| Gold (GLD) | -0.65% | -4.90% | 2.17% | 11.49% | 63.68% | 63.68% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BNO) | -0.70% | +0.82% | -2.91% | -5.76% | -5.44% | -5.44% |
| Copper (CPER) | -0.82% | -2.37% | 8.30% | 16.53% | 38.95% | 38.95% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | -0.83% | +0.99% | -2.69% | -6.22% | -8.46% | -8.46% |
| Soybeans (SOYB) | -1.13% | -2.15% | -7.37% | 1.86% | 1.77% | 1.77% |
| Gasoline (UGA) | -1.22% | +0.28% | -7.78% | -4.28% | -2.00% | -2.00% |
| Energy (DBE) | -1.30% | +0.26% | -4.77% | -4.65% | -2.23% | -2.23% |
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | -1.83% | -3.22% | -0.56% | 6.12% | 17.20% | 17.20% |
| Precious Metals (DBP) | -2.28% | -6.87% | 6.86% | 18.36% | 73.32% | 73.32% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | -6.13% | -15.31% | 22.18% | 30.48% | 124.48% | 124.48% |
| Natural Gas (UNG) | -6.55% | -4.29% | -16.77% | -6.20% | -27.07% | -27.07% |
| Silver (SLV) | -6.61% | -9.42% | 25.80% | 52.04% | 144.66% | 144.66% |
Cryptocurrency
Digital assets saw mixed results as the year came to a close, with Ethereum outperforming while Bitcoin slightly retreated. Ethereum (ETHA) gained +0.45% on the day, whereas Bitcoin (IBIT) declined -0.36%. The session was also notable for a sharp -2.05% drop in XRP, capping a volatile quarter for the asset which fell -23.62% over the final three months of the year.
| Asset (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP (XRP) | -2.05% | -1.25% | -16.04% | — | — | — |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | -0.36% | +0.08% | -3.69% | -23.62% | -6.41% | -6.41% |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | -0.34% | -0.01% | -5.64% | -26.38% | — | — |
| Solana (SOLZ) | +0.31% | +1.68% | -9.48% | -42.08% | — | — |
| Ethereum (ETHA) | +0.45% | +1.31% | -2.27% | -28.82% | -11.31% | -11.31% |
What to Watch Today
Today, Friday, January 2, 2026, marks the first trading day of the new year. All eyes are on the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI release for December at 9:45 AM ET, followed by the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 AM ET. Economists are looking for a growth reading near 52.2, as the manufacturing sector has shown signs of a cautious recovery. These reports are critical as they provide the first benchmark for economic momentum in 2026 and will help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate path ahead of next week’s highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report.
For a deeper dive into the data, access today’s full Daily ETF Data Pack.
This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.
This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.
