Macro Overview
Global equity markets faced significant pressure on Tuesday as renewed trade tensions over U.S. territorial demands triggered a broad risk-off sentiment. The S&P 500 (IVV) declined 2.02%, while international developed markets (EFA) and emerging markets (EEM) also retrenched, falling 1.52% and 0.97% respectively. A notable outlier to the downside pressure was the broad commodity complex (DJP), which surged 2.14% as investors sought safe-haven exposure in precious metals amid geopolitical uncertainty. Technical breadth in the U.S. showed signs of strain, with the percentage of S&P 500 constituents above their 50-day SMA dropping to 60.04% as volatility spiked.
U.S. Size & Style
Large-cap growth names (IVW) bore the brunt of Tuesday’s sell-off, sliding 2.44% as the RSI for the segment reached a near-oversold level of 36.16. In contrast, mid-cap and small-cap segments showed relative resilience, with Mid-Cap Growth (IJK) declining only 1.12%. Despite the daily losses, mid-caps maintain the strongest technical posture in the style box, with Mid-Cap Blend (IJH) trading 3.57% above its 50-day moving average.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-Cap Growth (IJK) | -1.12% | 4.14% | 7.13% | 5.56% | 8.64% |
| Small-Cap Growth (IJT) | -1.27% | 3.31% | 4.73% | 5.44% | 7.60% |
| Mid-Cap Blend (IJH) | -1.38% | 3.35% | 6.40% | 4.68% | 8.30% |
| Small-Cap Blend (IJR) | -1.40% | 3.63% | 6.67% | 5.53% | 9.12% |
| Small-Cap Value (IJS) | -1.62% | 3.91% | 8.50% | 5.46% | 10.47% |
| Large-Cap Value (IVE) | -1.64% | 0.75% | 3.01% | 0.76% | 12.00% |
| Mid-Cap Value (IJJ) | -1.70% | 2.49% | 5.63% | 3.69% | 7.62% |
| Large-Cap Blend (IVV) | -2.02% | -0.42% | 1.25% | -0.63% | 14.84% |
| Large-Cap Growth (IVW) | -2.44% | -1.51% | -0.31% | -1.91% | 16.97% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
Defensive positioning was evident as Consumer Staples (XLP) was the sole GICS sector to post a gain, rising 0.30% with an RSI now reaching an overbought 72.23. The Energy sector (XLE) showed relative strength with a modest 0.19% decline, buoyed by rising oil prices. Conversely, the high-growth Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) sectors were the daily laggards, each falling 2.60% as investors rotated away from cyclicals.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | 0.30% | 5.39% | 4.22% | 6.02% | 9.54% |
| Energy (XLE) | -0.19% | 8.77% | 10.49% | 6.46% | 4.71% |
| Health Care (XLV) | -0.22% | 0.72% | 7.78% | 0.39% | 12.80% |
| Utilities (XLU) | -0.99% | 1.53% | -5.44% | 0.63% | 12.07% |
| Materials (XLB) | -1.01% | 6.76% | 8.93% | 6.26% | 11.27% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | -1.48% | -2.30% | -2.07% | -3.61% | 17.92% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | -1.92% | 3.77% | -1.48% | 2.60% | 4.22% |
| Industrials (XLI) | -2.02% | 5.28% | 6.88% | 5.42% | 20.33% |
| Financials (XLF) | -2.28% | -2.66% | 1.12% | -2.87% | 7.37% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | -2.60% | -2.05% | 1.03% | -0.24% | 4.82% |
| Technology (XLK) | -2.60% | -1.76% | -1.42% | -1.48% | 21.92% |
Global Thematic
Precious metals themes dominated the leadership board, with Gold Explorers (GOEX) skyrocketing 7.52% as a hedge against trade war risks. In stark contrast, thematic segments tied to risk-on digital transformation collapsed; Blockchain (BLOK) and Crypto Industry miners (CRPT) were significant laggards, with the latter dropping 7.57% on the day.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| Leaders | |
| Gold Explorers (GOEX) | 7.52% |
| Sprott Active Gold & Silver Miners (GBUG) | 7.02% |
| Sprott Gold Miners (SGDM) | 6.86% |
| Sprott Junior Gold Miners (SGDJ) | 6.54% |
| VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) | 6.19% |
| Laggards | |
| SkyBridge Crypto Industry (CRPT) | -7.57% |
| Blockchain ETF (BKCH) | -6.09% |
| Digital Transformation (DAPP) | -6.08% |
| Bitcoin Mining (WGMI) | -5.58% |
| Schwab Crypto Thematic (STCE) | -5.50% |
Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets
Developed markets in Europe faced particular pressure as tariff threats targeted key allies, with Germany (EWG) and Japan (EWJ) falling 1.85% and 2.06% respectively. In Emerging Markets, Thailand (THD) stood out as a leader, gaining 3.16%, while Mexico (EWW) is now significantly overbought with an RSI of 74.36 following recent momentum.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developed Markets ex-U.S. | |||||
| Switzerland (EWL) | -0.58% | 0.99% | 4.30% | 0.33% | 29.97% |
| Canada (EWC) | -0.69% | 1.99% | 8.91% | 1.52% | 37.14% |
| Australia (EWA) | -1.05% | 2.24% | -1.27% | 1.03% | 12.72% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | -1.06% | 3.19% | 7.48% | 4.94% | 43.38% |
| United Kingdom (EWU) | -1.06% | 2.66% | 8.08% | 1.64% | 35.25% |
| South Korea (EWY) | -1.11% | 21.49% | 25.51% | 14.14% | 107.00% |
| Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) | -1.52% | 2.68% | 4.74% | 2.07% | 32.23% |
| France (EWQ) | -1.63% | -0.80% | -0.94% | -0.98% | 22.79% |
| Germany (EWG) | -1.85% | 1.05% | 1.58% | 0.09% | 30.45% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | -2.05% | 7.12% | 6.99% | 6.33% | 38.31% |
| Japan (EWJ) | -2.06% | 3.90% | 4.01% | 3.69% | 32.35% |
| Emerging Markets | |||||
| Thailand (THD) | 3.16% | 5.18% | 6.70% | 5.09% | 12.23% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | 1.36% | 8.22% | 15.25% | 5.82% | 50.58% |
| South Africa (EZA) | 0.91% | 8.64% | 17.02% | 6.74% | 83.71% |
| Mexico (EWW) | 0.82% | 8.37% | 15.35% | 7.62% | 63.13% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | -0.05% | 3.07% | 8.39% | 2.30% | 7.22% |
| Emerging Markets (EEM) | -0.97% | 6.68% | 5.86% | 4.75% | 39.44% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | -1.03% | 2.50% | 9.69% | 1.90% | 23.40% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | -1.19% | 7.95% | 5.19% | 4.74% | 33.78% |
| China (MCHI) | -1.39% | 1.68% | -2.67% | 2.63% | 36.37% |
| India (INDA) | -2.12% | -4.47% | -5.50% | -4.29% | 1.07% |
Fixed Income
Interest rate volatility spiked on Tuesday as investors fled to quality, impacting long-duration segments. Long-Term Treasuries (SPTL) fell 1.13% as yields adjusted to shifting geopolitical risks. Credit spreads remained relatively stable despite the equity sell-off, with High Yield (HYG) showing a modest 0.26% decline, outperforming broader core benchmarks (AGG) which retreated 0.38%.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multisector | |||||
| Short-Term (BSV) | -0.04% | -0.01% | 0.45% | -0.13% | 5.79% |
| Core Enhanced (IUSB) | -0.36% | -0.13% | -0.26% | -0.17% | 7.20% |
| Core (AGG) | -0.38% | -0.17% | -0.47% | -0.21% | 6.95% |
| Long-Term (BLV) | -1.10% | -0.52% | -3.05% | -0.47% | 6.13% |
| Government | |||||
| Ultrashort (BIL) | 0.00% | 0.26% | 0.93% | 0.18% | 4.10% |
| Short-Term (SPTS) | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.66% | -0.03% | 4.97% |
| Intermediate (SPTI) | -0.14% | -0.38% | -0.30% | -0.38% | 6.93% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | -0.30% | -0.23% | -0.96% | -0.20% | 5.93% |
| Long-Term (SPTL) | -1.13% | -0.72% | -3.49% | -0.64% | 4.97% |
| Specialty | |||||
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | -0.15% | 0.58% | 2.27% | 0.13% | 6.61% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | -0.18% | 0.03% | 0.33% | -0.12% | 7.75% |
| High Yield (HYG) | -0.26% | 0.65% | 1.46% | 0.31% | 7.82% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | -0.43% | 0.07% | 0.24% | -0.06% | 8.42% |
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | -0.53% | 1.51% | 1.18% | 2.10% | 6.03% |
| Convertible (CWB) | -0.83% | 3.19% | 0.81% | 4.38% | 18.66% |
| International & EM | |||||
| International Local (IGOV) | 0.31% | 0.65% | -0.91% | -0.05% | 11.54% |
| Emerging Local (EMLC) | 0.19% | 1.24% | 3.18% | 0.62% | 19.44% |
| International USD (BNDX) | -0.31% | 0.33% | -0.54% | 0.14% | 3.33% |
| Emerging USD (EMB) | -0.50% | -0.56% | 0.77% | -0.57% | 12.18% |
| Municipals | |||||
| Short-Term (SUB) | -0.08% | 0.50% | 1.12% | 0.34% | 3.97% |
| Intermediate (MUB) | -0.35% | 0.49% | 0.53% | 0.11% | 4.21% |
| High Yield (HYD) | -0.76% | 0.08% | 0.87% | -0.23% | 3.02% |
| Long-Term (MLN) | -0.77% | -0.98% | -0.87% | -0.69% | 2.15% |
Commodities
Commodities were the primary beneficiary of the Tuesday trade turmoil, with Natural Gas (UNG) exploding 19.75% higher. Precious metals also saw robust demand as safety assets, with Silver (SLV) surging 5.39% and Gold (GLD) gaining 3.78%. In contrast, Industrial Metals (DBB) and Agriculture (DBA) traded slightly lower, reflecting concerns over global growth deceleration from trade restrictions.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Composite (DJP) | 2.14% | 7.52% | 9.29% | 6.38% | 17.95% |
| Agriculture | |||||
| Corn (CORN) | 0.03% | -3.43% | -2.22% | -3.10% | -12.44% |
| Soybeans (SOYB) | -0.23% | -0.36% | -0.59% | 0.32% | 0.55% |
| Broad-based (DBA) | -0.43% | 0.78% | -1.37% | -0.12% | -0.74% |
| Wheat (WEAT) | -1.23% | 0.65% | -1.42% | 0.70% | -15.33% |
| Sugar (CANE) | -1.34% | -0.77% | -4.78% | -2.10% | -13.10% |
| Energy | |||||
| Natural Gas (UNG) | 19.75% | 1.48% | -4.33% | 0.90% | -32.55% |
| Broad-based (DBE) | 1.61% | 5.61% | 5.01% | 4.55% | -5.15% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | 0.29% | 5.63% | 5.94% | 3.90% | -12.92% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BNO) | -0.20% | 6.62% | 7.32% | 5.16% | -8.79% |
| Industrial Metals | |||||
| Broad-based (DBB) | -0.08% | 7.70% | 15.50% | 3.49% | 26.01% |
| Copper (CPER) | -0.64% | 6.28% | 14.35% | 2.15% | 31.05% |
| Precious Metals | |||||
| Platinum (PPLT) | 7.07% | 24.72% | 49.54% | 20.19% | 160.18% |
| Silver (SLV) | 5.39% | 40.14% | 78.94% | 32.55% | 209.27% |
| Broad-based (DBP) | 4.34% | 15.59% | 20.81% | 15.06% | 91.91% |
| Palladium (PALL) | 3.95% | 8.64% | 22.92% | 16.62% | 94.40% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.78% | 9.58% | 8.45% | 10.33% | 75.40% |
Cryptocurrency
Digital assets faced a sharp correction on Tuesday as the risk-off mood forced a significant deleveraging across the space. Solana (SOLZ) led the declines with a 12.25% plunge, while Ethereum (ETHA) dropped 8.88%. Bitcoin (IBIT) showed slightly more relative stability but still fell 6.42% as investors favored traditional physical hedges over digital ones.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solana (SOLZ) | -12.25% | 0.08% | -33.87% | 2.35% | N/A |
| Ethereum (ETHA) | -8.88% | 0.13% | -24.78% | 1.07% | -15.06% |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | -6.84% | 1.33% | -21.22% | 2.39% | N/A |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | -6.42% | 1.70% | -19.34% | 2.24% | -14.86% |
What to Watch Today
Market attention remains firmly fixed on the escalating trade tensions following the White House’s unprecedented demands for control of Greenland and the subsequent threat of 25% tariffs on NATO allies. As global leaders continue discussions in Davos, the potential for immediate retaliatory measures from Denmark, Germany, and the UK will likely drive further volatility in global trade-sensitive stocks. Domestically, investors are digesting the resilience of consumer spending against a backdrop of steady inflation data, while watching for signs that currency volatility may begin to impact corporate earnings expectations for the first quarter of 2026.
