S&P 7,000: Milestone Touched as Fed Holds Rates Steady

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Macro Overview

U.S. equities remained flat on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, matching market expectations despite internal dissent for a cut. The S&P 500 (IVV) briefly touched the historic 7,000 level during the session, supported by a resurgence in high-beta technology names and stabilizing yields. While domestic large caps held their ground, Emerging Markets (EEM) gained 0.68% as dollar weakness supported regional currencies, contrasting with a 1.06% decline in Developed Markets (EFA). Commodities saw significant divergence, as broad-based precious metals (DBP) jumped 3.70% on safe-haven demand, while broad agriculture (DBA) managed only a fractional 0.15% gain.

U.S. Size & Style

Large-cap growth (IVW) was the only domestic segment to post a meaningful positive day, gaining 0.10% as anticipation for mega-cap earnings bolstered sentiment in technology-heavy indices. Technical breadth remains a point of focus, with 60.19% of Large Cap (IVV) constituents trading above their 50-day SMA, though the segment sits at a 0.00% discount from its 52-week high. Small-cap value (IJS) was the day’s laggard, dropping 0.58%, as higher-for-longer rate signals from the Fed weighed on more leverage-sensitive smaller enterprises. Despite the daily dip, small caps continue to show strong medium-term recovery, with the Small Cap Blend (IJR) currently 40.30% above its 52-week low.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Large Growth (IVW) 0.10% 0.50% 0.14% 1.91% 20.77%
Large Cap (IVV) 0.01% 0.78% 1.57% 2.01% 16.49%
Mid Growth (IJK) -0.08% 3.78% 6.31% 6.17% 9.64%
Large Value (IVE) -0.18% 1.01% 3.18% 2.02% 11.42%
Mid Cap (IJH) -0.23% 3.15% 6.33% 5.23% 8.71%
Small Cap (IJR) -0.47% 3.19% 5.98% 5.72% 8.67%
Small Growth (IJT) -0.49% 2.28% 4.14% 5.37% 7.01%
Mid Value (IJJ) -0.51% 2.39% 6.20% 4.05% 7.37%
Small Value (IJS) -0.58% 4.15% 7.72% 5.99% 10.20%

U.S. Sectors & Industries

Technology (XLK) led the GICS sectors with a 0.80% gain, fueled by a 62.32 RSI as investors rotated back into AI infrastructure and software names. Energy (XLE) followed closely at 0.77%, hitting an overbought RSI of 74.41 and boasting the highest sector breadth with 89.47% of constituents above their 50-day SMA. Conversely, Consumer Staples (XLP) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) underperformed, dropping 1.01% and 0.75% respectively, as concerns over sticky inflation dampening real consumption weighed on the retailers and brand manufacturers. Materials (XLB) maintained strength near its 52-week high, showing 100% breadth above its 50-day SMA despite a flat daily performance.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Technology (XLK) 0.80% 1.84% -1.01% 3.65% 28.53%
Energy (XLE) 0.77% 13.24% 15.55% 11.94% 15.59%
S&P 500 (SPY) -0.01% 0.74% 1.51% 1.98% 16.38%
Financial (XLF) -0.02% -4.73% 0.34% -3.25% 4.68%
Materials (XLB) -0.06% 8.33% 12.71% 10.14% 14.77%
Communication Services (XLC) -0.13% -1.03% 0.47% -0.82% 16.51%
Utilities (XLU) -0.23% 1.29% -3.13% 1.50% 16.38%
Industrials (XLI) -0.56% 4.41% 6.48% 5.81% 20.33%
Health Care (XLV) -0.73% -1.12% 6.54% -0.32% 7.16%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -0.75% -0.23% 1.19% 1.98% 6.05%
Real Estate (XLRE) -0.97% 0.81% -1.19% 1.24% 1.91%
Consumer Staples (XLP) -1.01% 5.23% 5.80% 5.97% 7.38%

Global Thematic

Nuclear and uranium themes continued their explosive rally, with the Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (URNJ) surging 10.56% and Global X Uranium (URA) gaining 6.85% on renewed global energy policy shifts. Natural Resources remained a dominant theme with Gold Miners (RING) rising 3.16% as spot gold reached new all-time highs. On the downside, Genomic innovation faced steep selling pressure, as the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) fell 2.90%. Cannabis-focused funds also struggled, with the Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS) dropping 2.71% in sympathy with broader healthcare sector weakness.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change
1-Day Performance Leaders
Sprott Junior Uranium Miners (URNJ) 10.56%
Sprott Uranium Miners (URNM) 8.49%
Global X Uranium (URA) 6.85%
VanEck Uranium and Nuclear (NLR) 5.57%
iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners (RING) 3.16%
1-Day Performance Laggards
Sprott Nickel Miners (NIKL) -3.64%
Sprott Lithium Miners (LITP) -3.06%
ARK Genomic Revolution (ARKG) -2.90%
Amplify Seymour Cannabis (CNBS) -2.71%
iShares Genomics Immunology (IDNA) -2.53%

Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

South Korea (EWY) continues to be the primary outlier in global markets, surging another 6.43% today and pushing its RSI to an extreme 84.7, as the nation sits 55.40% above its 200-day SMA. Hong Kong (EWH) also showed significant strength, gaining 4.07% as dollar weakness catalyzed flows into Asian financials and tech. In the Emerging space, Indonesia (EIDO) suffered a severe 10.01% correction, driving its RSI into deep oversold territory at 21.27. South Africa (EZA) remained a leader in the EMEA region, gaining 1.42% and sitting at a 52-week high with zero discount.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
South Korea (EWY) 6.43% 35.96% 31.01% 29.15% 136.50%
Hong Kong (EWH) 4.07% 7.49% 11.12% 10.82% 50.41%
Australia (EWA) 2.89% 5.58% 4.12% 7.56% 17.35%
Netherlands (EWN) 1.16% 10.94% 10.30% 10.56% 45.64%
Canada (EWC) 0.30% 10.59% 2.83% 4.49% 38.38%
Switzerland (EWL) 0.30% 8.69% 0.84% 1.82% 25.15%
France (EWQ) 0.04% 1.38% 0.77% 1.20% 20.76%
U.K. (EWU) -0.56% 9.83% 4.52% 5.14% 36.15%
Germany (EWG) -0.65% 3.19% 5.49% 3.55% 29.45%
Japan (EWJ) -0.73% 5.24% 5.37% 5.54% 30.51%
Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) -1.06% 7.51% 4.60% 5.19% 32.22%
Emerging Markets
South Africa (EZA) 1.42% 13.98% 29.61% 16.48% 98.20%
Brazil (EWZ) 1.16% 21.20% 28.42% 20.65% 63.15%
Mexico (EWW) 1.12% 10.65% 19.61% 13.56% 64.58%
China (MCHI) 0.98% 4.31% -0.65% 6.39% 34.97%
Emerging (EEM) 0.68% 10.86% 10.66% 11.04% 46.46%
Taiwan (EWT) -0.18% 12.96% 11.00% 12.06% 45.51%
India (INDA) -0.39% -4.36% -5.59% -4.74% 2.63%
Thailand (THD) -0.43% 6.66% 7.15% 8.76% 13.51%
Malaysia (EWM) -0.73% 7.96% 16.55% 9.06% 29.96%
Indonesia (EIDO) -10.01% -6.45% -3.45% -7.70% -3.26%

Fixed Income

Fixed income markets were largely subdued following the Fed’s decision to pause, with duration-sensitive long-term bonds (BLV) and long-dated Treasuries (SPTL) sliding about 0.20% as yields held steady near recent highs. Convertible bonds (CWB) were a notable outlier, gaining 0.86% as they benefited from the positive delta in technology equities and narrow credit spreads. Short-term and ultrashort instruments like T-Bills (BIL) remained effectively flat, yielding steady income in a sideways rate environment. Emerging Local (EMLC) showed defensive properties against a weaker dollar, despite a minor 0.19% daily decline, maintaining a robust 19.19% one-year return.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Multisector
Taxable Core (AGG) -0.04% 0.11% -0.13% 0.27% 6.80%
Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) -0.06% 0.11% 0.02% 0.30% 7.04%
Taxable Short-Term (BSV) -0.03% 0.06% 0.58% 0.04% 5.60%
Taxable Long Term (BLV) -0.20% -0.01% -2.61% 0.49% 5.98%
Government
Inflation Protected (TIP) 0.05% 0.35% -0.50% 0.48% 5.89%
Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) 0.01% 0.27% 0.93% 0.25% 4.10%
Government Short (SPTS) 0.00% 0.14% 0.66% 0.03% 4.83%
Government Intermediate (SPTI) -0.03% -0.35% -0.16% -0.21% 6.55%
Government Long (SPTL) -0.19% -0.19% -3.06% 0.26% 4.80%
Specialty
Convertible (CWB) 0.86% 5.87% 3.22% 7.32% 21.72%
Mortgage Backed (MBS) -0.05% 0.35% 0.51% 0.49% 8.34%
Corporate (SPIB) -0.06% 0.06% 0.51% 0.21% 7.44%
Preferred Stock (PFF) -0.09% 2.41% 1.82% 2.75% 5.73%
Bank Loans (BKLN) -0.10% -0.39% 1.05% -0.44% 5.88%
Taxable High Yield (HYG) -0.16% 0.55% 1.26% 0.51% 7.60%
International & EM
International USD (BNDX) -0.02% 0.19% -0.41% 0.39% 3.40%
Emerging USD (EMB) -0.12% 0.12% 0.84% 0.39% 12.39%
Emerging Local (EMLC) -0.19% 2.59% 5.00% 2.71% 19.19%
International Local (IGOV) -0.42% 2.04% 1.59% 2.57% 12.33%
Municipals
Municipal Long (MLN) 0.09% -0.21% -0.16% 0.02% 2.36%
Municipal Intermediate (MUB) 0.07% 0.86% 1.04% 0.65% 4.33%
Municipal High Yield (HYD) 0.06% 0.33% 1.17% 0.23% 3.17%
Municipal Short (SUB) 0.05% 0.66% 1.38% 0.52% 3.90%

Commodities

Precious metals (DBP) dominated the commodity space with a 3.70% surge, led by spot Gold (GLD) jumping 3.88% and Silver (SLV) adding 3.95% as the U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level in over four years. Energy complex performance was mixed, with WTI Crude (USO) gaining 1.27% on geopolitical instability, while Natural Gas (UNG) dropped 1.16% amid shifting weather forecasts. Broad Agriculture (DBA) saw muted 0.15% gains as gains in Wheat (WEAT) were offset by a minor 0.26% decline in Sugar (CANE).

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP) 1.08% 11.09% 20.08% 14.78% 29.41%
Agriculture
Wheat (WEAT) 1.85% 2.15% -1.74% 4.56% -13.72%
Soybeans (SOYB) 0.67% 0.49% -1.75% 2.70% 1.54%
Corn (CORN) 0.65% -3.70% -2.68% -1.69% -11.93%
Broad-based (DBA) 0.15% 0.86% 2.48% 1.41% -2.73%
Sugar (CANE) -0.26% -2.90% 2.85% -1.95% -16.50%
Energy
Natural Gas (UNG) -1.16% 13.43% 17.75% 18.52% -10.80%
Brent Crude Oil (BNO) 1.21% 13.21% 9.35% 12.29% 1.47%
WTI Crude Oil (USO) 1.27% 11.89% 7.33% 10.79% -2.84%
Broad-based (DBE) 0.58% 11.42% 7.47% 11.14% 5.53%
Industrial Metals
Broad-based (DBB) 1.03% 7.43% 15.71% 7.11% 35.31%
Copper (CPER) 0.55% 2.71% 14.97% 5.21% 37.80%
Precious Metals
Palladium (PALL) 6.24% 5.68% 45.38% 27.88% 112.79%
Silver (SLV) 3.95% 48.48% 147.31% 63.92% 282.19%
Gold (GLD) 3.88% 18.67% 35.73% 24.79% 93.81%
Platinum (PPLT) 3.10% 11.37% 69.45% 31.50% 184.44%
Broad-based (DBP) 3.70% 23.58% 53.72% 32.70% 118.78%

Cryptocurrency

Digital assets traded with a slight risk-off bias following the Fed’s neutral tone, as Solana (SOLZ) led the decliners with a 1.44% drop. Bitcoin (IBIT) and Ethereum (ETHA) also softened by roughly 0.24% and 0.39% respectively, as technical consolidation continued near key support levels. Despite the daily weakness, XRP showed relative resilience, falling only 0.19%, as it continues to outperform peers on a YTD basis with a 4.68% return. Market sensitivity remains high to shifts in risk appetite and dollar volatility, which have become the primary drivers for the broader crypto complex entering 2026.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Solana (SOLZ) -1.44% 2.38% -36.98% 0.69%
Ethereum (ETHA) -0.39% 2.71% -25.66% 1.38% -2.94%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ) -0.31% 2.01% -23.26% 2.03%
Bitcoin (IBIT) -0.24% 1.81% -21.68% 1.73% -12.28%
XRP -0.19% 3.37% 4.68%

What to Watch Today

Investors are bracing for a massive wave of mega-cap technology results, with Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla all slated to report earnings that could dictate the trajectory of the recent AI-driven rally. Market participants will also be closely monitoring initial jobless claims and continuing claims data for any signs of further cooling in the labor market following the Fed’s cautious stance. Additionally, any fresh policy signals regarding trade or tariffs from the administration could provide further volatility for international and industrial metal markets. The S&P 500’s ability to maintain its newfound 7,000 level will likely hinge on these key corporate and economic catalysts over the next 48 hours.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.