Macro Overview
U.S. equities faced a sharp “risk-off” session on February 5, 2026, as investors grappled with a combination of surging jobless claims and massive AI-related capital expenditure forecasts from Big Tech that spooked growth expectations. The S&P 500 (IVV) fell 1.27%, while international markets were not spared, with the Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) and Emerging Markets (EEM) also moving lower. A significant outlier was the collapse in digital assets and precious metals, as Silver (SLV) plummeted over 15% in a single day, reflecting extreme volatility. Conversely, fixed income served as a haven, with Government Long Bonds (SPTL) rising 0.95% as the 10-year Treasury yield compressed following the downbeat labor market data.
U.S. Size & Style
Growth segments led the market lower today, continuing a difficult week where the Large Growth (IVW) style box dropped 1.51%, pushing its weekly decline to a staggering -4.54%. Technical indicators highlight a stark divergence in sentiment, as Large Growth’s RSI has collapsed to 31.04, flirting with oversold territory, while Value counterparts like Small Value (IJS) remain closer to the midline with an RSI of 61.12. Despite the daily sell-off, Small Value holds the highest 1-year performance at 13.70%, benefiting from superior breadth with 68.19% of its constituents trading above their 50-day SMA.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid Growth (IJK) | -0.14% | 1.37% | 5.78% | 4.26% | 7.21% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | -0.19% | 2.88% | 6.04% | 5.16% | 5.32% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | -0.53% | 2.58% | 7.87% | 5.35% | 8.65% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | -0.70% | 4.51% | 8.84% | 6.86% | 9.35% |
| Large Value (IVE) | -0.91% | 1.97% | 5.59% | 3.27% | 13.40% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | -0.95% | 3.78% | 10.09% | 6.40% | 9.99% |
| Small Value (IJS) | -1.13% | 6.26% | 11.79% | 8.66% | 13.70% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | -1.27% | -1.49% | 0.30% | -0.65% | 13.52% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | -1.51% | -4.46% | -4.19% | -4.05% | 13.26% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
Defensive positioning was evident today as the Utilities (XLU) sector was the lone gainer, eking out a 0.05% advance. On the other end of the spectrum, cyclical and tech-heavy sectors were hammered; Materials (XLB) dropped 2.68% and Technology (XLK) fell 1.80%. Technical health in Technology has reached a critical juncture with an RSI of 31.39 and only 34.29% of its stocks trading above their 50-day SMA, indicating broad-based weakness. Energy (XLE) remains a long-term technical leader, still trading 17.94% above its 200-day SMA despite today’s 1.17% retreat.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utilities (XLU) | 0.05% | 0.94% | -2.26% | 0.96% | 13.09% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | -0.08% | 12.37% | 15.38% | 11.90% | 12.87% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | -0.51% | -1.31% | 2.79% | -1.28% | 14.72% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | -0.55% | 1.98% | 1.83% | 2.18% | 1.51% |
| Industrials (XLI) | -0.60% | 5.33% | 10.27% | 8.54% | 24.46% |
| Health Care (XLV) | -0.76% | -0.13% | 6.75% | 0.03% | 6.13% |
| Energy (XLE) | -1.17% | 11.35% | 20.45% | 16.77% | 19.60% |
| Financial (XLF) | -1.24% | -5.06% | 1.66% | -2.70% | 4.53% |
| Technology (XLK) | -1.80% | -6.22% | -7.94% | -5.79% | 16.54% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | -2.16% | -2.32% | -2.31% | -1.59% | 3.42% |
| Materials (XLB) | -2.68% | 8.42% | 19.12% | 11.36% | 15.63% |
Global Thematic
Thematic performance today was dominated by the collapse in “future tech” and high-growth innovation plays, as the Innovation (ARKK) segment dropped 5.23%. Crypto-linked mining firms were the primary laggards, with the Crypto Miners (WGMI) fund plunging 12.56%. In contrast, traditional infrastructure and income-oriented themes showed resilience; the Midstream & MLP RIC (MLPX) gained 0.44%, while MLP C-Corps (AMLP) rose 0.20%, acting as a defensive buffer for thematic portfolios.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| Top 5 Leaders | |
| Midstream & MLP RIC (MLPX) | 0.44% |
| MLP C-Corp (AMLP) | 0.20% |
| SteelPath MLP & Energy Infrastructure (PIPE) | 0.82% |
| Energy Income (EINC) | 0.76% |
| Building & Construction (PKB) | 0.58% |
| Bottom 5 Laggards | |
| Crypto Miners (WGMI) | -12.56% |
| SkyBridge Crypto Industry (CRPT) | -16.97% |
| Blockchain (BKCH) | -13.39% |
| Digital Transformation (DAPP) | -13.11% |
| Crypto Industry Innovators (BITQ) | -11.89% |
Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets
International equity markets faced broad pressure, but specific regions highlighted varying technical strengths. In the Developed space, South Korea (EWY) remained flat today but continues to boast a massive 1-year return of 123.70%, trading 45.21% above its 200-day SMA. Emerging markets saw South Africa (EZA) lead the laggards with a 3.22% drop, while Brazil (EWZ) showed relative stability, falling only 0.19% despite the broader global retreat.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developed Markets Top 10 | |||||
| South Korea (EWY) | -0.04% | 14.67% | 27.25% | 23.65% | 123.70% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | -0.37% | 3.00% | 12.35% | 3.80% | 26.32% |
| France (EWQ) | -0.65% | 0.68% | 4.74% | 1.64% | 21.58% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | -0.72% | 6.09% | 9.04% | 9.79% | 51.86% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | -0.84% | 0.70% | 7.93% | 6.19% | 37.06% |
| Germany (EWG) | -0.95% | -0.49% | 5.18% | 0.80% | 25.46% |
| Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) | -1.42% | 2.22% | 8.49% | 4.48% | 29.92% |
| Canada (EWC) | -1.58% | -0.82% | 8.69% | 0.39% | 31.75% |
| Japan (EWJ) | -1.59% | 3.57% | 7.92% | 6.64% | 30.33% |
| Australia (EWA) | -1.80% | 4.62% | 6.18% | 6.30% | 14.95% |
| U.K. (EWU) | -2.36% | 2.52% | 9.91% | 4.46% | 32.60% |
| Emerging Markets Top 10 | |||||
| Brazil (EWZ) | -0.19% | 12.56% | 19.11% | 16.18% | 53.09% |
| Thailand (THD) | -0.31% | 4.21% | 8.11% | 7.01% | 16.03% |
| China (MCHI) | -0.35% | -4.10% | -3.98% | 0.05% | 26.77% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | -0.43% | 3.92% | 7.51% | 6.82% | 36.17% |
| Emerging (EEM) | -0.46% | 2.94% | 7.72% | 6.98% | 39.20% |
| Mexico (EWW) | -0.51% | 8.86% | 16.59% | 10.82% | 60.87% |
| India (INDA) | -0.92% | -2.47% | -2.49% | -2.04% | 3.26% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | -1.05% | 5.69% | 13.14% | 6.65% | 26.03% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | -1.57% | -8.04% | -4.64% | -6.36% | -0.02% |
| South Africa (EZA) | -3.22% | 1.94% | 19.14% | 4.07% | 70.44% |
Fixed Income
Duration was the primary driver of fixed income gains today as safe-haven bids surged, with long-dated government securities leading the charge. The Government Long (SPTL) fund gained 0.95%, while long-term taxable credit (BLV) rose 0.81%. Credit spreads showed some stress as riskier segments like Convertible bonds (CWB) fell 1.67% and Preferred Stock (PFF) dropped 0.89%, while emerging local currency debt (EMLC) declined 0.38%.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multisector | |||||
| Long-Term (BLV) | 0.81% | 0.47% | 0.37% | 0.70% | 4.37% |
| Core (AGG) | 0.43% | 0.36% | 1.19% | 0.52% | 6.33% |
| Core Enhanced (IUSB) | 0.41% | 0.42% | 1.29% | 0.57% | 6.64% |
| Short-Term (BSV) | 0.27% | 0.33% | 1.27% | 0.40% | 5.75% |
| Government | |||||
| Long-Term (SPTL) | 0.95% | 0.35% | -0.09% | 0.58% | 2.89% |
| Intermediate (SPTI) | 0.45% | 0.15% | 1.10% | 0.29% | 6.53% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | 0.28% | 0.36% | 0.59% | 0.59% | 5.06% |
| Short-Term (SPTS) | 0.17% | 0.31% | 1.20% | 0.35% | 5.04% |
| Ultrashort (BIL) | 0.00% | 0.29% | 0.92% | 0.33% | 4.09% |
| Specialty | |||||
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | 0.30% | 0.50% | 1.66% | 0.64% | 7.73% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | 0.30% | 0.36% | 1.63% | 0.54% | 7.35% |
| High Yield (HYG) | -0.11% | 0.06% | 1.82% | 0.37% | 7.05% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | -0.19% | -1.54% | 0.08% | -1.40% | 4.86% |
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | -0.89% | 0.02% | 1.81% | 1.21% | 4.36% |
| Convertible (CWB) | -1.67% | -0.20% | -1.27% | 2.40% | 15.65% |
| International & EM | |||||
| Emerging USD (EMB) | 0.25% | 0.42% | 2.06% | 0.60% | 11.43% |
| International USD (BNDX) | 0.12% | 0.56% | 0.23% | 0.69% | 2.67% |
| International Local (IGOV) | -0.21% | 1.08% | 2.10% | 1.25% | 9.72% |
| Emerging Local (EMLC) | -0.38% | 1.47% | 4.75% | 1.82% | 17.60% |
| Municipals | |||||
| Intermediate (MUB) | 0.18% | 0.70% | 1.57% | 0.91% | 3.96% |
| High Yield (HYD) | 0.16% | 0.21% | 1.69% | 0.29% | 2.20% |
| Long-Term (MLN) | 0.11% | 0.04% | 0.65% | 0.38% | 1.78% |
| Short-Term (SUB) | 0.10% | 0.59% | 1.59% | 0.71% | 3.75% |
Commodities
Precious metals experienced an extraordinary meltdown today, with Silver (SLV) crashing 15.77% and Platinum (PPLT) dropping 9.75%. The Broad Commodities (DJP) composite fell 1.69% as the weakness in metals offset slight gains in Agricultural markets, where Soybeans (SOYB) and Wheat (WEAT) both managed to close higher. Natural Gas (UNG) remained volatile, falling 20% on a week-to-date basis despite a marginal 0.45% gain today.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | -1.69% | 5.80% | 11.36% | 8.19% | 18.94% |
| Agriculture | |||||
| Soybeans (SOYB) | 1.50% | 3.56% | -1.96% | 5.03% | 2.09% |
| Wheat (WEAT) | 1.31% | 3.37% | -4.49% | 4.51% | -17.35% |
| Corn (CORN) | 1.18% | -1.48% | -2.52% | -0.76% | -12.77% |
| Broad-based (DBA) | 0.23% | -0.19% | 0.54% | 0.98% | -4.22% |
| Sugar (CANE) | -1.18% | -3.80% | 0.90% | -5.28% | -20.47% |
| Energy | |||||
| Natural Gas (UNG) | 0.45% | 16.25% | -0.81% | 10.28% | -24.04% |
| Broad-based (DBE) | -0.87% | 10.51% | 5.48% | 10.79% | 5.98% |
| Gasoline (UGA) | -1.08% | 10.65% | 3.66% | 10.95% | 7.82% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BNO) | -1.49% | 10.71% | 9.65% | 12.39% | 3.99% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | -1.53% | 9.21% | 7.97% | 10.89% | 0.79% |
| Industrial Metals | |||||
| Broad-based (DBB) | -1.82% | -2.60% | 10.66% | 1.39% | 26.01% |
| Copper (CPER) | -2.89% | -4.16% | 14.12% | 0.80% | 26.17% |
| Precious Metals | |||||
| Gold (GLD) | -2.66% | 8.10% | 20.56% | 11.50% | 67.30% |
| Broad-based (DBP) | -6.00% | 4.36% | 24.81% | 8.61% | 73.21% |
| Palladium (PALL) | -6.39% | -2.96% | 15.78% | 3.22% | 64.92% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | -9.75% | -11.11% | 28.05% | -2.50% | 102.33% |
| Silver (SLV) | -15.77% | -3.46% | 52.78% | 3.52% | 127.22% |
Cryptocurrency
Digital assets suffered a major blow today as Bitcoin (IBIT) fell 13.16%, bringing its 3-month performance to -38.73%. XRP faced the most severe pressure, crashing over 22% in the daily session. The broad liquidations in crypto mirror the violent moves seen in precious metals, suggesting a massive unwinding of leveraged positions across the “alternative store of value” landscape.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP (XRP) | -22.53% | -48.71% | N/A | -35.14% | N/A |
| Solana (SOLZ) | -15.15% | -43.15% | -52.30% | -36.99% | N/A |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | -14.06% | -35.52% | -41.60% | -29.58% | N/A |
| Ethereum (ETHA) | -13.95% | -42.66% | -46.09% | -37.32% | -32.86% |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | -13.16% | -32.47% | -38.73% | -27.29% | -34.76% |
What to Watch Today
Market participants are now pivotally focused on the upcoming non-farm payrolls report, which takes on heightened importance following today’s surge in initial jobless claims to 231,000. Any further signs of labor market cooling could amplify the narrative of a slowing economy, potentially forcing a more aggressive response from the Federal Reserve. Additionally, the broad volatility in “store of value” assets like silver and bitcoin suggests a major liquidity event is underway, making market-wide breadth and credit spreads key areas of concern. Finally, follow-through from Amazon’s earnings will likely set the tone for the tech sector’s attempt to stabilize after a bruising week of capital expenditure concerns.
