Macro Overview
U.S. equity markets surged to new record highs on Monday, fueled by growing optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-China trade deal ahead of a planned meeting between the two leaders later this week. Positive sentiment was further bolstered by expectations of another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve following its meeting on Wednesday. The S&P 500 (IVV) climbed 1.19%, closing at a record, mirroring gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite. The 10-year Treasury yield eased slightly to 3.99%.
U.S. Size & Style
The risk-on sentiment favored large-cap growth stocks, with Large Growth (IVW) gaining 1.57%. Large caps generally outperformed, reflecting strength in technology and AI-related names. Conversely, small caps lagged, with Small Cap (IJR) finishing nearly flat (+0.01%) and Small Value (IJS) declining slightly by 0.11%.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Growth (IVW) | +1.57% | 1.57% | 4.05% | 9.56% | 23.14% | 28.32% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | +1.19% | 1.19% | 3.57% | 7.91% | 18.06% | 19.86% |
| Large Value (IVE) | +0.74% | 0.74% | 2.89% | 5.85% | 12.14% | 9.63% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | +0.62% | 0.62% | 1.98% | 3.64% | 8.18% | 8.15% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | +0.38% | 0.38% | 1.38% | 3.25% | 7.28% | 8.05% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | +0.15% | 0.15% | 0.91% | 2.91% | 6.13% | 7.89% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | +0.26% | 0.26% | 2.08% | 6.30% | 7.12% | 6.85% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | +0.01% | 0.01% | 2.26% | 7.70% | 6.25% | 7.96% |
| Small Value (IJS) | -0.11% | -0.11% | 2.53% | 9.16% | 5.42% | 8.74% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
Technology (XLK) led the sector advance, gaining 1.85%, buoyed by strong performance in semiconductors and news of new AI chip developments. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) (+1.44%) and Communication Services (XLC) (+1.39%) also performed well. Within industries, Biotech (XBI) (+2.95%) and Semiconductor (XSD) (+2.42%) were notable standouts. Materials (XLB) was the only sector to finish in the red (-0.04%), with Metals & Mining (XME) experiencing significant losses (-2.07%), potentially reflecting reduced demand expectations amid trade optimism.
| Sector (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology (XLK) | +1.85% | 1.85% | 7.23% | 14.27% | 29.19% | 30.65% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | +1.44% | 1.44% | 0.57% | 7.40% | 8.16% | 21.07% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | +1.39% | 1.39% | -0.85% | 9.25% | 22.09% | 30.44% |
| Industrials (XLI) | +0.57% | 0.57% | 2.10% | 0.93% | 19.44% | 16.81% |
| Financial (XLF) | +0.41% | 0.41% | -0.98% | 0.12% | 11.48% | 16.04% |
| Utilities (XLU) | +0.27% | 0.27% | 5.56% | 9.15% | 23.59% | 17.34% |
| Energy (XLE) | +0.24% | 0.24% | -4.03% | 2.22% | 5.62% | 1.62% |
| Health Care (XLV) | +0.23% | 0.23% | 8.02% | 7.74% | 7.81% | 0.26% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | +0.21% | 0.21% | 2.05% | 0.64% | 7.51% | 0.27% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | +0.16% | 0.16% | 1.62% | -2.12% | 2.70% | 0.36% |
| Materials (XLB) | -0.04% | -0.04% | 0.15% | -3.22% | 7.28% | -3.43% |
Global Thematic
Thematic performance showed significant divergence. Health innovation themes like Clincal-Stage Biotech (SBIO) (+4.46%) and digital/AI themes saw strong gains. Conversely, precious metals and rare earth miners suffered steep losses, exemplified by Gold Miners (GDX) (-3.97%) and VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) (-5.21%), as optimism over potential trade deals reduced demand for safe havens and strategic materials.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| Top 5 Performers | |
| ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF (SBIO) | +4.46% |
| First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry & Digital Economy.. (CRPT) | +3.60% |
| iShares Blockchain and Tech ETF (IBLC) | +2.91% |
| Roundhill Generative Al & Technology ETF (CHAT) | +2.75% |
| F/M Emerald Life Sciences Innovation ETF (LFSC) | +2.73% |
| Bottom 5 Performers | |
| VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) | -3.77% |
| Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (URNJ) | -3.77% |
| Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GOEX) | -3.83% |
| VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) | -3.97% |
| Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF (SLVR) | -4.11% |
| iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING) | -4.44% |
| Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) | -4.58% |
| U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF (GOAU) | -4.64% |
| VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) | -5.21% |
| Sprott Critical Materials ETF (SETM) | -5.34% |
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed international markets generally moved higher, following the positive sentiment in the U.S. Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) rose 0.69%. South Korea (EWY) was a standout performer, gaining 2.46%, while Japan (EWJ) also posted a strong gain of 1.25%, reportedly hitting new highs on optimism surrounding its new prime minister’s policies. Minor losses were seen in Switzerland (EWL) (-0.32%).
| Country (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea (EWY) | +2.46% | 2.46% | 19.58% | 28.82% | 85.32% | 57.99% |
| Japan (EWJ) | +1.25% | 1.25% | 3.84% | 10.37% | 25.49% | 27.19% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | +1.17% | 1.11% | 4.28% | 11.34% | 35.67% | 27.19% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | +0.98% | 0.98% | 2.42% | 3.99% | 32.54% | 25.41% |
| Australia (EWA) | +0.70% | 0.70% | 2.62% | 3.36% | 16.46% | 9.55% |
| Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) | +0.69% | 0.69% | 3.31% | 5.45% | 28.76% | 23.54% |
| France (EWQ) | +0.49% | 0.49% | 3.99% | 3.68% | 29.19% | 22.10% |
| U.K. (EWU) | +0.47% | 0.47% | 3.37% | 5.76% | 29.38% | 23.94% |
| Germany (EWG) | +0.46% | 0.46% | 1.41% | -2.41% | 33.47% | 29.80% |
| Canada (EWC) | -0.10% | -0.10% | 1.54% | 8.04% | 26.87% | 25.89% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | -0.32% | -0.32% | 4.94% | 3.23% | 26.25% | 14.56% |
Emerging Markets
Emerging markets also participated in the global rally, with Emerging (EEM) gaining 1.11%. China (MCHI) posted a solid 1.67% gain, likely benefiting from the trade optimism. Mexico (EWW) (+1.47%) also performed well. However, South Africa (EZA) (-1.50%) and Indonesia (EIDO) (-1.15%) faced notable declines.
| Country (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China (MCHI) | +1.67% | 1.67% | 1.97% | 11.30% | 41.33% | 35.36% |
| Mexico (EWW) | +1.47% | 1.47% | -1.21% | 8.65% | 44.24% | 32.53% |
| Emerging (EEM) | +1.11% | 1.11% | 5.69% | 12.52% | 34.49% | 26.76% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | +1.05% | 1.05% | 0.89% | 7.32% | 8.08% | 7.09% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | +0.95% | 0.95% | 0.13% | 14.22% | 39.18% | 16.44% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | +0.75% | 0.75% | 6.76% | 12.70% | 29.41% | 22.86% |
| India (INDA) | +0.39% | 0.39% | 4.73% | 1.71% | 3.95% | 0.75% |
| Thailand (THD) | +0.29% | 0.29% | 2.86% | 8.37% | 3.62% | -4.59% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | -1.15% | -1.15% | 2.78% | 2.78% | 0.52% | -13.84% |
| South Africa (EZA) | -1.50% | -1.50% | 1.42% | 17.28% | 54.99% | 37.73% |
Fixed Income
Fixed income markets saw modest gains, particularly in riskier segments, aligning with the equity rally. Emerging USD (EMB) (+0.77%) and Convertible (CWB) (+0.62%) led performance. Core bonds, represented by Taxable Core (AGG), were slightly positive at +0.07% as Treasury yields eased slightly.
| Category (Ticker) | 1 Day | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taxable Core (AGG) | +0.07% | 0.07% | 1.47% | 3.82% | 7.56% | 6.73% |
| Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) | +0.08% | 0.08% | 1.43% | 3.65% | 7.60% | 6.97% |
| Taxable Multisector (PYLD) | +0.19% | 0.19% | 1.31% | 3.74% | 8.81% | 9.60% |
| Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.30% | 1.03% | 3.43% | 4.29% |
| Taxable Short-Term (BSV) | -0.04% | -0.04% | 0.73% | 1.94% | 5.39% | 5.64% |
| Taxable Long Term (BLV) | +0.30% | 0.30% | 3.12% | 6.94% | 9.65% | 6.44% |
| Government Short (SPTS) | -0.03% | -0.03% | 0.60% | 1.62% | 4.35% | 5.01% |
| Government Intermediate (SPTI) | -0.03% | -0.03% | 1.14% | 2.83% | 7.33% | 6.48% |
| Government Long (SPTL) | +0.33% | 0.33% | 3.29% | 6.89% | 8.66% | 4.82% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | -0.03% | -0.03% | 0.93% | 2.73% | 7.74% | 6.46% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | +0.06% | 0.06% | 1.05% | 2.87% | 7.55% | 7.49% |
| Taxable High Yield (HYG) | +0.25% | 0.25% | 0.72% | 2.46% | 7.90% | 8.63% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | +0.19% | 0.19% | 0.53% | 1.63% | 5.19% | 6.71% |
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | +0.28% | 0.28% | 0.35% | 3.37% | 6.06% | 2.67% |
| Convertible (CWB) | +0.62% | 0.62% | 4.40% | 9.89% | 21.54% | 23.48% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | +0.09% | 0.09% | 1.56% | 4.33% | 8.25% | 7.63% |
| International USD (BNDX) | +0.18% | 0.18% | 1.19% | 1.92% | 3.63% | 4.21% |
| International (IGOV) | +0.21% | 0.21% | 0.61% | 0.35% | 10.88% | 6.70% |
| Emerging USD (EMB) | +0.77% | 0.77% | 2.31% | 6.00% | 13.35% | 12.44% |
| Emerging (EMLC) | +0.20% | 0.20% | 0.89% | 2.94% | 15.90% | 12.38% |
| Municipal Short (SUB) | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.05% | 0.51% | 2.78% | 3.29% |
| Municipal Intermediate (MUB) | +0.01% | 0.01% | 1.54% | 4.69% | 3.44% | 3.79% |
| Municipal Long (MLN) | +0.03% | 0.03% | 2.28% | 8.24% | 2.15% | 2.98% |
| Municipal High Yield (HYD) | +0.08% | 0.08% | 1.37% | 5.63% | 1.92% | 2.47% |
Commodities
Commodities were broadly lower, led by a sharp decline in precious metals as safe-haven demand waned amid trade optimism and profit-taking. Precious Metals (DBP) dropped 2.95%, with Gold (GLD) falling 2.78% and Silver (SLV) tumbling 3.61%. Energy was mixed, with WTI Crude Oil (USO) down slightly (-0.08%). In contrast, Industrial Metals (DBB) gained 0.97%.
| Commodity (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat (WEAT) | +2.43% | 2.43% | 0.48% | -5.61% | -12.66% | -17.61% |
| Soybeans (SOYB) | +1.73% | 1.73% | 4.14% | 4.04% | 5.40% | 5.06% |
| Corn (CORN) | +1.45% | 1.45% | 1.42% | 2.17% | -4.79% | -0.50% |
| Copper (CPER) | +0.98% | 0.98% | 8.61% | -10.99% | 26.79% | 16.30% |
| Industrial Metals (DBB) | +0.97% | 0.97% | 7.81% | 10.99% | 15.70% | 10.46% |
| Gasoline (UGA) | +0.20% | 0.20% | -2.48% | 5.54% | 2.51% | 2.78% |
| Energy (DBE) | +0.05% | 0.05% | -2.60% | -0.16% | 2.86% | 4.36% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | -0.08% | -0.08% | -5.06% | -2.31% | -3.22% | -1.50% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BNO) | -0.30% | -0.30% | -4.93% | -1.10% | -0.83% | -1.10% |
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | -0.52% | -0.52% | 2.40% | 4.74% | 12.90% | 12.10% |
| Natural Gas (UNG) | -0.62% | -0.62% | 3.37% | -6.80% | -23.32% | -10.80% |
| Agriculture (DBA) | -1.13% | -1.13% | -2.56% | 0.81% | -1.13% | 10.19% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | -1.35% | -1.35% | 0.31% | 13.05% | 73.73% | 54.29% |
| Palladium (PALL) | -2.20% | -2.20% | 9.93% | 14.04% | 52.56% | 16.85% |
| Sugar (CANE) | -2.31% | -2.31% | -10.95% | -14.35% | -18.55% | -27.16% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.78% | -2.78% | 5.85% | 19.39% | 51.58% | 44.88% |
| Precious Metals (DBP) | -2.95% | -2.95% | 4.69% | 19.28% | 50.18% | 42.15% |
| Silver (SLV) | -3.61% | -3.61% | 1.29% | 22.33% | 61.03% | 38.43% |
Cryptocurrency
Digital assets surged alongside traditional risk assets. Ethereum (ETHA) was a notable leader, jumping 6.87%, while Bitcoin (IBIT) also posted a strong gain of 3.90%, trading around $115,000 according to news reports.
| Asset (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solana (SOLZ) | +3.57% | 3.57% | -1.85% | 4.65% | N/A | N/A |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | +3.90% | 3.90% | 5.39% | -1.63% | 23.05% | 71.74% |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | +4.47% | 4.47% | 3.85% | -0.43% | N/A | N/A |
| Ethereum (ETHA) | +6.87% | 6.87% | 4.24% | 15.12% | 25.54% | 69.51% |
What to Watch Today
Investors today will be closely watching several economic releases, primarily the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for October, scheduled for release at 10:00 AM ET. This report is a key gauge of consumer sentiment regarding current economic conditions and future expectations. A strong reading could indicate continued consumer resilience and spending potential, while a weaker-than-expected number might raise concerns about economic headwinds. Also on the docket are the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for August (9:00 AM ET) and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October (10:00 AM ET), providing further insights into the housing market and regional manufacturing activity, respectively. As these reports are released after the typical publication time of this commentary, results are not yet available.
For a deeper dive into the data, access today’s full Daily ETF Data Pack.
This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.
This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.
