Macro Market Overview
The market extended its rally on Monday, largely ignoring the ongoing U.S. government shutdown as investor focus remained squarely on the artificial intelligence narrative and record-setting large-cap technology stocks. The S&P 500 (IVV) advanced by +0.37%, climbing to a new all-time high, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose even further on the heels of major AI infrastructure deals. The positive sentiment was highly concentrated, however, with Large Growth outperforming all other style boxes. Conversely, Small-Cap Value stocks finished the day as the clear laggard, declining by -0.45%. The session also saw a broad retreat in bond prices, particularly long-duration government debt, suggesting inflation concerns or anticipated Federal Reserve action may be tempering fixed income enthusiasm.
U.S. Size & Style
U.S. size and style performance confirmed the momentum bias dominating the session, with Large Growth (IVW) leading the pack with a gain of +0.48% and extending its impressive one-year return to 27.78%. Large Cap and Mid-Cap segments saw modest gains, but the narrative shifted heavily against small-cap names, particularly Small Value (IJS), which fell by -0.45%. This performance divergence suggests investors are favoring proven, high-growth entities, often tied to the current AI/tech theme, over smaller, more economically sensitive stocks.
| Ticker | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Value (IVE) | +0.23% | 0.23% | 2.97% | 5.30% | 10.50% | 7.84% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | +0.37% | 0.37% | 4.07% | 7.76% | 15.71% | 18.74% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | +0.48% | 0.48% | 4.99% | 9.91% | 20.22% | 27.78% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | -0.08% | -0.08% | -0.28% | 2.80% | 6.13% | 8.26% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | +0.17% | 0.17% | 0.07% | 3.61% | 6.70% | 7.19% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | +0.18% | 0.18% | 0.11% | 4.04% | 6.77% | 5.76% |
| Small Value (IJS) | -0.45% | -0.45% | 1.08% | 8.28% | 4.29% | 7.22% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | -0.26% | -0.26% | 0.92% | 6.31% | 5.04% | 5.52% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | -0.13% | -0.13% | 0.82% | 4.54% | 5.75% | 3.55% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
Sector performance was heavily bifurcated, reflecting the large-cap/small-cap divergence. Technology (+1.01%) and Utilities (+0.97%) were the clear leaders. Strength in Technology was fueled by positive news in the Semiconductor and Software & Services sub-sectors, while Utilities benefited from a flight-to-safety trade. On the downside, economically sensitive sectors lagged significantly, led by Real Estate (XLRE), which was the worst performer with a -1.00% decline, followed by Consumer Staples (XLP) at -0.73%. Homebuilders (XHB) were particularly weak, underscoring sensitivity to higher long-term rates.
| Sector | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology (XLK) | +1.01% | 1.01% | 9.55% | 12.07% | 24.26% | 28.46% |
| Utilities (XLU) | +0.97% | 0.97% | 8.26% | 10.42% | 21.07% | 13.63% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | +0.86% | 0.86% | 2.22% | 8.64% | 7.63% | 22.08% |
| Energy (XLE) | +0.49% | 0.49% | 3.15% | 3.54% | 6.90% | -0.91% |
| Industrials (XLI) | +0.47% | 0.47% | 3.21% | 4.25% | 18.93% | 16.22% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | +0.10% | 0.10% | 1.94% | 8.22% | 21.41% | 29.67% |
| Financial (XLF) | -0.04% | -0.04% | 1.52% | 1.29% | 12.25% | 19.35% |
| Materials (XLB) | -0.09% | -0.09% | -1.91% | -1.27% | 8.26% | -3.79% |
| Health Care (XLV) | -0.48% | -0.48% | 4.99% | 6.85% | 6.15% | -3.27% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | -0.73% | -0.73% | -3.55% | -5.09% | 0.42% | -2.37% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | -1.00% | -1.00% | -0.48% | 0.42% | 4.79% | -1.02% |
Global Thematic
Thematic performance was defined by a surge in high-beta, growth-oriented sectors and a sharp sell-off in housing-related themes. Crypto Miners (WGMI) soared by an astounding +8.51%, benefiting from the record highs seen in Bitcoin and Ethereum. This theme, along with Innovation (ARKK), which was up +3.70%, highlights the speculative risk-on appetite. Conversely, the Homebuilders (XHB/ITB) theme was crushed, with both funds dropping -2.05%, indicating acute sensitivity to rising interest rate expectations following weakness in the bond market.
| Ticker | Name | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|---|
| WGMI | CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF | +8.51% |
| CNBS | Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF | +4.70% |
| ARKK | ARK Innovation ETF | +3.70% |
| URA | VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF | +3.25% |
| PBW | Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF | +3.19% |
| BETZ | Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF | -1.39% |
| SURI | Simplify Propel Opportunities ETF | -1.44% |
| ITB | iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF | -2.05% |
| XHB | SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF | -2.05% |
| WOOD | iShares Global Timber & Forestry ETF | -2.42% |
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed international markets (EFA) posted a modest gain of +0.23%, driven by powerful performance in Asia. Japan (EWJ) surged +1.82% and South Korea (EWY) climbed +1.11%, likely buoyed by domestic political news and technology strength. European markets struggled, with France (EWQ) collapsing by -1.60% on political volatility. The performance gulf between high-beta Asia and politically-pressured Europe was the dominant theme.
| Country | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ex-U.S. (EFA) | +0.23% | 0.23% | 3.82% | 6.46% | 28.22% | 19.04% |
| Australia (EWA) | -0.26% | -0.26% | 1.60% | 3.32% | 16.42% | 6.74% |
| Canada (EWC) | +0.12% | 0.12% | 4.33% | 9.92% | 28.15% | 25.60% |
| France (EWQ) | -1.60% | -1.60% | 3.83% | 2.58% | 25.95% | 15.32% |
| Germany (EWG) | -0.02% | -0.02% | 2.61% | 0.50% | 35.51% | 30.35% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | -0.09% | -0.09% | 1.70% | 6.79% | 32.05% | 12.09% |
| Japan (EWJ) | +1.82% | 1.82% | 5.17% | 11.62% | 25.10% | 18.61% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | +0.10% | 0.10% | 11.61% | 9.93% | 35.93% | 21.19% |
| South Korea (EWY) | +1.11% | 1.11% | 15.14% | 16.62% | 66.59% | 38.49% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | +0.11% | 0.11% | 0.84% | 3.32% | 25.76% | 13.51% |
| U.K. (EWU) | -0.14% | -0.14% | 2.48% | 6.93% | 28.18% | 20.00% |
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM) posted a solid session, climbing +0.46%, largely supported by continued strength in Asian technology hubs. Taiwan (EWT) and India (INDA) were the best performers, gaining +0.60% and +0.59% respectively. In contrast, Latin American markets faced pressure, with Mexico (EWW) dropping sharply by -2.05%, erasing some of its recent year-to-date gains.
| Country | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging (EEM) | +0.46% | 0.46% | 7.99% | 11.73% | 31.52% | 19.08% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | -0.07% | -0.07% | 2.29% | 3.41% | 37.10% | 9.71% |
| China (MCHI) | +0.14% | 0.14% | 8.62% | 21.78% | 43.60% | 20.28% |
| India (INDA) | +0.59% | 0.59% | 0.53% | -5.43% | 0.23% | -6.92% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | -0.06% | -0.06% | -2.84% | -0.29% | -3.20% | -15.80% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | -0.42% | -0.42% | 4.23% | 6.88% | 8.62% | 4.08% |
| Mexico (EWW) | -2.05% | -2.05% | 2.52% | 6.06% | 42.30% | 23.94% |
| South Africa (EZA) | +0.40% | 0.40% | 12.78% | 19.22% | 57.70% | 39.79% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | +0.60% | 0.60% | 8.01% | 9.40% | 25.64% | 24.87% |
| Thailand (THD) | -0.85% | -0.85% | 0.59% | 13.90% | 0.96% | -7.84% |
Fixed Income
The fixed income market was broadly negative, with aggregate bonds (AGG) dropping -0.22% as interest rates moved higher. The long end of the curve was hit hardest, with Government Long (SPTL) falling -0.59%. The session’s primary outperformer was the high-beta segment of the bond market: Convertible Bonds (CWB) rallied sharply by +0.71%, acting more like an equity proxy than a traditional fixed income asset, while Preferred Stock (PFF) also posted a positive gain of +0.09%.
| Ticker | 1 Day | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taxable Core (AGG) | -0.22% | -0.22% | 0.18% | 2.52% | 6.23% | 3.97% |
| Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) | -0.21% | -0.21% | 0.21% | 2.55% | 6.34% | 4.34% |
| Taxable Multisector (PYLD) | +0.00% | 0.00% | 0.64% | 2.94% | 7.76% | 7.81% |
| Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) | +0.02% | 0.02% | 0.32% | 1.06% | 3.22% | 4.35% |
| Taxable Short-Term (BSV) | -0.05% | -0.05% | 0.02% | 1.63% | 4.85% | 4.77% |
| Taxable Long Term (BLV) | -0.54% | -0.54% | 0.67% | 3.59% | 6.72% | 0.29% |
| Government Short (SPTS) | -0.03% | -0.03% | 0.19% | 1.42% | 3.96% | 4.51% |
| Government Intermediate (SPTI) | -0.21% | -0.21% | -0.37% | 1.95% | 6.30% | 4.39% |
| Government Long (SPTL) | -0.59% | -0.59% | 0.33% | 3.12% | 5.35% | -1.74% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | -0.17% | -0.17% | -0.36% | 2.18% | 6.70% | 4.35% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | -0.09% | -0.09% | 0.25% | 2.36% | 6.76% | 5.87% |
| Taxable High Yield (HYG) | +0.02% | 0.02% | 0.46% | 2.08% | 7.34% | 7.64% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | +0.00% | 0.00% | 0.60% | 1.58% | 4.84% | 6.98% |
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | +0.09% | 0.09% | 0.76% | 4.14% | 6.26% | 2.31% |
| Convertible (CWB) | +0.71% | 0.71% | 7.27% | 12.09% | 20.71% | 23.46% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | -0.20% | -0.20% | 0.36% | 3.02% | 6.86% | 4.69% |
| International USD (BNDX) | -0.22% | -0.22% | 0.01% | 0.51% | 2.45% | 2.90% |
| International (IGOV) | -0.49% | -0.49% | -0.56% | -1.51% | 10.31% | 3.85% |
| Emerging USD (EMB) | -0.13% | -0.13% | 0.76% | 4.14% | 11.09% | 8.70% |
| Emerging (EMLC) | +0.00% | 0.00% | 0.97% | 2.17% | 15.31% | 9.42% |
| Municipal Short (SUB) | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.23% | 0.91% | 2.86% | 2.91% |
| Municipal Intermediate (MUB) | +0.08% | 0.08% | 1.42% | 2.93% | 2.33% | 1.71% |
| Municipal Long (MLN) | +0.00% | 0.00% | 2.71% | 4.74% | 0.51% | -0.12% |
| Municipal High Yield (HYD) | -0.10% | -0.10% | 1.44% | 2.18% | 0.89% | 0.26% |
Commodities
The commodity complex was robust, with the broad commodity index (DJP) gaining +0.90%. Precious metals led the charge, with Palladium (PALL) surging +4.88% and Gold (GLD) up +1.88%. Energy also performed well, with Gasoline (UGA) climbing +2.16%. The single weak spot was Copper (CPER) in the industrial metals sector, which declined by -0.61%, contrasting with the general risk-on mood.
| Commodity | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | +0.90% | 0.90% | 4.39% | 3.94% | 11.90% | 8.93% |
| Energy (DBE) | +1.23% | 1.23% | 0.90% | -1.31% | 1.88% | 0.91% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | +1.62% | 1.62% | 0.33% | -3.09% | -3.55% | -4.56% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BNO) | +1.74% | 1.74% | 0.85% | -0.96% | -0.53% | -3.37% |
| Natural Gas (UNG) | +1.92% | 1.92% | 2.78% | -12.79% | -20.88% | -16.56% |
| Gasoline (UGA) | +2.16% | 2.16% | -0.31% | 3.12% | 0.93% | 0.51% |
| Precious Metals (DBP) | +1.65% | 1.65% | 10.89% | 20.64% | 50.44% | 47.43% |
| Gold (GLD) | +1.88% | 1.88% | 10.07% | 18.64% | 50.49% | 48.73% |
| Silver (SLV) | +1.24% | 1.24% | 18.41% | 31.48% | 67.34% | 50.07% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | +1.22% | 1.22% | 17.80% | 18.40% | 78.41% | 62.90% |
| Palladium (PALL) | +4.88% | 4.88% | 19.31% | 16.62% | 45.27% | 30.46% |
| Industrial Metals (DBB) | +0.19% | 0.19% | 6.01% | 8.25% | 11.41% | 3.56% |
| Copper (CPER) | -0.61% | -0.61% | 11.42% | -2.44% | 23.73% | 8.88% |
| Agriculture (DBA) | +0.26% | 0.26% | -1.55% | 3.28% | 0.56% | 9.64% |
| Corn (CORN) | -0.06% | -0.06% | 0.40% | -3.08% | -6.23% | -4.71% |
| Soybeans (SOYB) | -0.05% | -0.05% | -0.64% | -2.11% | 1.40% | -3.97% |
| Wheat (WEAT) | -0.24% | -0.24% | -0.72% | -10.58% | -14.11% | -22.18% |
| Sugar (CANE) | +1.75% | 1.75% | 2.18% | -2.92% | -6.40% | -19.20% |
Cryptocurrency
The crypto market experienced a massive risk-on rally, driven by Bitcoin hitting a new record high on Monday morning. Ethereum (ETHA) led the largest assets with a +4.47% jump, closely followed by Multi-Coin (NCIQ) at +2.16% and Bitcoin (IBIT) itself, climbing +2.12%. The sector’s strength mirrors the thematic outperformance seen in related equity sectors like Crypto Miners.
| Asset | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solana (SOLZ) | +0.85% | 0.85% | 12.96% | 48.64% | N/A | N/A |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | +2.12% | 2.12% | 12.41% | 14.63% | 34.38% | 100.70% |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | +2.16% | 2.16% | 11.25% | 22.10% | N/A | N/A |
| Ethereum (ETHA) | +4.47% | 4.47% | 9.22% | 83.63% | 41.52% | 94.19% |
What to Watch Today
The economic focus this morning shifts to the U.S. Trade Balance for August, set for release at 8:30 AM ET. This data point is particularly important given the delay of many other key government releases (like the jobs report) due to the ongoing shutdown. The trade balance provides critical insight into global demand for U.S. goods (Exports) and domestic consumption of foreign goods (Imports). A wider-than-expected deficit would typically imply greater import demand, potentially pointing to continued economic resilience, but it can also be a headwind for Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Given the market’s current fixation on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s rate path, any surprise here could influence dollar strength and equity flows, especially in the pre-market trading session. Also on watch are several Fed speeches throughout the day, which investors will scrutinize for commentary on the latest market movements and the outlook for future rate cuts.
For a deeper dive into the data, access today’s full Daily ETF Data Pack.
This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.
This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.
